Think again: academic

German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers a  Government declaration on the consequences of the...
German Chancellor Angela Merkel delivers a Government declaration on the consequences of the Brexit vote in the Bundestag, in Berlin this week. Photo by Reuters.

Brexit is not a "done deal'' and British moves to leave the European Union should be rethought, as damage to the United Kingdom's economy mounts and promises by the "leave'' proponents begin unravel.

That comment was made yesterday by international affairs specialist Prof Robert Patman, of the University of Otago politics department.

Britain's leaders also had to ask themselves whether Brexit was worth the cost of breaking up the United Kingdom, given strong support for remaining in the EU in both Scotland and Northern Ireland, Prof Patman said.

Last week's referendum and its aftermath were not just a "British problem'', and the growing economic damage was adversely affecting many other countries, including New Zealand.

Since the vote last Thursday, the pound had fallen to its lowest level for more than 30 years, Britain had lost its previous triple-A credit rating, and many British businesses were considering relocating to the EU, where they could enjoy access to a market of about 440million people, instead of only 64million in Britain.

Many commentators believed that Brexit would go ahead as announced, but Prof Patman believed it should be rethought, as damage to the British economy mounted, and promises by "leave'' proponents unravelled.

This was a "totally unnecessary crisis'' and a "major embarrassment'' for Britain.

And it was far from a "done deal'' that Britain would leave the EU.

If the economic damage continued to mount at the same rate as in the past week, some "courageous'' political action was needed, because the likely results of leaving the EU were already clear.

"It's an unmitigated disaster,'' he added.

Ultimately, the only way the economic damage could be averted was by Britain's leadership to announce that Britain would remain in the EU.

Prof Patman, who was born in England but has long lived in this country, said, given growing economic uncertainty, international investors were seeking safe havens for cash, including the New Zealand dollar.

But a rising dollar would start to undermine New Zealand's trading competitiveness in overseas markets.

Prof Patman said Brexit "leave'' proponents had last week won by only 4% in a non-binding referendum.

And claims that that Britain would save £350million ($NZ661.9million) a week in EU contributions, and regain direct control over immigration had since been shown to be wrong, he said.

john.gibb@odt.co.nz

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