More growth expected from NZ dollar

The New Zealand dollar is forecast to keep rising against both the United States and Australian currencies and remain relatively high against the British pound until at least March next year.

The latest BNZ currency research strategy has the kiwi at US68c in September, falling to US66c in December but rising to US68c late next year.

The New Zealand dollar is forecast to be A94c in August, rising to A97c by late next year. Some currency forecasters are predicting parity with the Australian currency by early next year, although they do not include the BNZ.

Against the pound, the dollar is forecast at 53p in August, rising to 54p next year and 55p in 2018.

BNZ currency strategist Jason Wong said the New Zealand dollar was solid throughout June following weak US employment data and the Federal Reserve backing away from its previous intentions to tighten policy in coming months.

The Reserve Bank's obvious lack of desire to cut rates to drive inflation higher in the face of a strong housing market and a run of solid domestic data also helped keep the dollar high, he said.

"Over recent months, our theme for the dollar has been `stronger for longer' but the strength of the dollar has still caught us by surprise.''

While the dollar was trading like a "safe haven'' at present, rising with risk-on sentiment and barely falling on risk-off, the BNZ projections implied the phenomenon was unlikely to be sustained as the year progressed, Mr Wong said.

Any jolt down in the dollar was likely to come from global sources. It was hard to seeany hiccup in the local economy, as growth was expected to maintain a steady pace and there was no guarantee further Reserve Bank rate cuts would have a sustainable effect on the dollar.

Lower interest rates would underpin a stronger growth profile for the next year, he said.

The best chance for dollar weakness would be for the market to reassess its profile for US monetary policy.

The market seemed complacent the US Federal Reserve was out of the picture for an extended period.

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