Forsyth Barr broker Suzanne Kinnaird said the decision suggested that competitors would find sub-loop unbundling uneconomic in most cases.
"It seems likely that Telecom's moves to push fibre deeper into the network and increase broadband speeds will also have the effect of reducing unbundled local loop-based competition.
This is positive for Telecom."
The commission left the monthly sub-loop unbundling charge unchanged from the draft decision at $11.99 in urban areas and $22.14 in the less relevant non-urban areas, she said.
However, the backhaul charge methodology changed from the draft with the result that sub-loop unbundling was likely to be more expensive for access seekers than unbundled copper local loop unbundling in most scenarios.
That was particularly relevant where the access seeker was less than a third of the cabinet's customers.
ABN Amro Craigs broker Chris Timms said the economics of sub-loop unbundling were always going to be challenging, but the pricing in the commission's decision effectively ruled out access competition at the roadside cabinet.
An average urban exchange served about 5000 lines and a typical exchange-based DSlam (digital subscriber line access multiplexer, which allows telephone lines to make faster connections to the internet) served 768 lines.
Full equipment utilisation required 15% market share.
However, the average urban cabinet served just 200 lines and mini-DSlams served 50 to 100 lines, and full utilisation required 25% to 50% market share, he said.
Both Forsyth Barr and ABN have a hold on Telecom shares with Forsyth Barr valuing the company at $3.60 a share.
One of Telecom's competitors was not happy with the commission decision.
Orcon chief executive Scott Bartlett said the decision was bad for New Zealand broadband consumers who were now priced out of the market.
"All of the improvements in broadband price, speed and service Kiwi consumers have benefited from during the past two years have been a result of competition brought about by unbundling.
"If you have any doubt as to whether the commission's decision was good for Telecom and bad for its competitors just check out what the market reckons."
Telecom's share price rose 3.9% following the decision last week.
It fell back yesterday but was still up 2%.
That suggested investors liked what the commission said, Mr Bartlett said.
