Retail trade figures better than forecast

Jane Turner
Jane Turner
Consumers appear to have started getting their wallets out and spending again, reinforcing suggestions that the economy is close to moving out of recession.

Statistics New Zealand figures showed retail sales rose a seasonally and inflation-adjusted 0.4% in the June quarter, with car sales stronger after sharp drops in recent quarters.

The data was better than expected, with the median forecast of economists in a Reuters poll having been for no change.

It coincided with news from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand that the residential real estate market held firm in July.

Statistics New Zealand said the rise in total retail sales volumes was the first since the September 2007 quarter.

ASB economist Jane Turner said the report mirrored a stabilisation in economic data globally.

"After 18 months in recession, the New Zealand economy is likely to be close to a trough.

"There is increasing confidence that the economy is past the worst and close to a turning point. As a result, households are likely to start to feel more confident about their own financial position."

Nonetheless, the recovery was likely to remain muted.

Unemployment had yet to reach its peak and households were likely to continue to focus on saving to restore the decline in wealth over the past year, she said.

Within the automotive component of the results, an increase in petrol sales was behind the relative strength, reversing a decline in the previous quarter.

Car sales had started to stabilise following large falls since the recession started.

Car registrations also suggested vehicle retailing had found a floor after bearing the brunt of consumer belt-tightening, Ms Turner said.

Hardware and appliance retails sales improved following the previous quarter's fall.

"We expect housing-related areas of retail spending will continue to firm in line with the small improvement in house sales and pick up in net migration," she said.

The hospitality industry continued to contract, with spending on accommodation and at bars and clubs falling 2.2% and 4.6% respectively.

While the strong increase in Australian tourists has helped buoy overall visitor numbers, Australians tended to have shorter stays, which had put a noticeable dent in tourism earnings, she said.

Among the implications of the results was the Reserve Bank having to rethink the very weak outlook it had for consumer spending over the next few years.

"It also has a lot of thinking to do about the relentless tightening of monetary conditions that undermines its overall forecast economic recovery."

The ASB still believed there was a high chance of the Reserve Bank cutting the official cash rate further, Ms Turner said.

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