Surveys point to growth

John Christie
John Christie
Two influential surveys out yesterday are pointing to good times ahead, but those good times could be hurt by a New Zealand dollar which is defying all odds.

The dollar reached US73c and is predicted to go higher as the US Federal Reserve keeps its interest rates at near zero.

The Otago Chamber of Commerce and the New Zealand Institute of Economic Research surveys both pointed to continued positive growth in the expectation the New Zealand business situation would improve during the next six months.

In the case of chamber members, they also felt their prospects would improve markedly in the same period.

Chamber chief executive John Christie said the results were optimistic and underpinned by a growing stability in the New Zealand economy and the global situation.

"All indicators are pointing in the right direction and it is across all sectors. Businesses are reinvesting capital and are looking to rehire staff.

"I have to warn though that this will not happen quickly. It will be a slow rebuild of the economy."

In Otago, the construction sector showed the highest improvement with more than 77% of respondents saying their business would improve over the next six months.

The main business inhibitors continued to be "demand" followed by "finance", he said.

Sales expectations in New Zealand for the next quarter were positive for the first time since April 2008 and compared with expectations in September 2007.

"There are expectations that profitability will improve with expectations similar to September 2006."

With regards to staff, the expectation was that businesses would be taking on more full-time staff and that finding both skilled and unskilled staff was easy, Mr Christie said. While full-time staff numbers were expected to rise, staff costs continued to be the biggest area of concern for business, although the concerns had eased slightly from June.

The NZIER survey showed strong evidence the worst of the recession was over and that the economy was on the mend.

However, until firms started to rebuild more assertively, the recovery would be gradual, NZIER principal economist Shamubeel Eaqub said.

Business confidence surged into positive territory in the september quarter to 27% from -14% in June.

"There is still considerable disparity between expectations and reality. While firms are clearly more confident about the economic outlook, their recent performance has been weak and they remain cautious about hiring more staff or lifting investment.

"This suggests that a shallow recovery from the recession is likely," he said.

ANZ-National Bank chief economist Cameron Bagrie said the disconnect was natural as there would always be some sort of lage between what was experienced and expected when the economy was at a turning point.

The divergence between the expected and experienced reading was the widest it had been in the history of the survey.

"This is telling and mirrors the divergence between the current and future conditions readings in recent consumer confidence surveys with the latter rebounding but the former unchanged.

"It is the former that drives the actual spending decision. While a better feel-good factor is percolating, there are aspects that appear to lack substance and are based on expectations as opposed to reality," he said.

The NZIER survey reinforced the September message from the Reserve Bank. Inflation did not look to be a near-term concern.

With uncertainty high and cautiousness remaining, Mr Bagrie predicted the Reserve Bank would hold its official cash rate low for an extended period.

 

Add a Comment