World waits for interest rate verdict

Cameron Bagrie
Cameron Bagrie
Global sharemarkets are likely to remain volatile this week as Wall Street braces for a Federal Reserve interest rate decision and crucial labour market data.

The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 2.6% last week to finish on Friday at 9712.73.

The technology-rich Nasdaq plunged a sharp 5.1% to 2045 over the week and the broader Standard & Poor's 500 lost 4% to close the week at 1036.

The Federal Reserve's policy-making committee will meet on Wednesday and Thursday (New Zealand time).

The committee is expected to keep the Fed's base interest rate at a historic low of zero to 0.25% to help stimulate growth.

Markets will also be focused on similar meetings of the European Central Bank and the Bank of England this week to try to read the signals for future monetary policy direction as the economies emerge from the recession that began nearly two years ago.

In the US, markets will also watch the labour market report for October.

The unemployment rate rose to a 26-year high of 9.8% in September.

In New Zealand, labour market data comes out tomorrow and Thursday, with most observers watching the Thursday release of the unemployment data for a sign that job losses have slowed.

ANZ-National Bank chief economist Cameron Bagrie is forecasting unemployment to rise to 6.3% in the three months ended September compared to 6% in June.

Employment was expected to fall by 0.2% - the third consecutive quarterly contraction.

"The June quarter was notable for reasonable rises in unemployment in rural regions and considering the ongoing pressures in these regions, this is a dynamic we expect to continue."

Hours worked were expected to rebound, albeit modestly, he said.

Private sector wage growth, as measured by the labour cost index, was expected to be soft, perhaps as low as 0.3% to take annual growth to 1.8%.

That would be the lowest rise since June 2001.

The more volatile quarterly employment survey is expected to show quarterly growth of 0.5% for annual growth of 3.2%.

Mr Bagrie said all of those measures would reinforce the ongoing pressures on household incomes.

"While economic prospects appear to be turning, any recovery looks set to be `jobless', at least initially.

"With under-employment at a six-year high and hours worked per person at record lows, there is significant slack in the labour market."

When labour demand eventually picked up, which was likely next year, there was ample capacity in the existing workforce to absorb that demand, Mr Bagrie said.

That implied that the unemployment rate could settle at a higher level than New Zealand had been accustomed to in the recent past.

 

Add a Comment