The language of the Reserve Bank's media release is likely to be relatively cautious, focusing on the near-term outlook for interest rates rather than the degree of tightening that will be required in later years.
Westpac chief economist Brendan O'Donovan said market pricing for interest rates was finally starting to fall in line with the Reserve Bank's views, and the central bank would be wary of disturbing that.
"We think if they can get away with retaining the wording of the October statement, they'll do it; in particular, their assertion that the OCR will remain on hold `until the second half of 2010'," he said.
Thursday's monetary policy statement would have been produced under much different circumstances to other statements this year.
Once again, the pace of the recovery had proven stronger than expected and it was also becoming apparent that the recession had not done as much to alleviate pressures as expected.
But this time, the good news had not been accompanied by a material tightening in financial conditions through higher long-term interest rates or a stronger currency.
The currency had eased since the OCR review in October, Mr O'Donovan said.
As a result, he expected a more hawkish set of forecasts on Thursday, as the Reserve Bank got to grips with the degree of tightening that would be needed as conditions returned to normal.
In New Zealand, the recovery had been steady rather than spectacular but was set to pick up the pace, he said.
The indicators pointed to modest growth of 0.4% in the September quarter, ahead of the Reserve Bank's last forecast of 0.1%.
"The December and March quarters could be absolute stormers with growth of 1% or more.
Consumers appear to have stopped retrenching and asset values and job prospects are starting to look more supportive."
The turnaround in fortunes had been most apparent in the housing market.
On the Real Estate Institute's new house price measure, prices had risen more than 9% from the lows in January, and were just 3% below the peaks seen two years ago.
Rising house prices might be a necessary evil in the short-term in order to induce a supply response which now looked to be under way.
Higher dairy prices were a major boost for the economy.
Prices for whole milk powder in Fonterra's online auction were up 25% since September, or 49% if measured from the dates when the monetary policy statement forecasts were finalised.
A substantial share of that increase would be captured by dairy farmers.
At every other OCR review since April, the exchange rate had been "rampantly higher" than expected, which the Reserve Bank viewed as completely offsetting the surprisingly good news from elsewhere.
This time, the economic news had continued to improve but the exchange rate was broadly in line with what the central bank projected in September.
Mr O'Donovan said the Reserve Bank might present the unvarnished truth to the market on Thursday, giving a clear warning of earlier and more tightening.
Interest rates were obviously going to rise by quite a margin in the next few years.
"For now, the Reserve Bank's key concern will be managing the tightening process and market expectations around it."
Investors would recognise a significant shift in the interest rate outlook and act accordingly, Mr Donovan said.
