US news deflects attention from OCR

The Reserve Bank, as expected, kept its official cash rate unchanged at 2.5% but more interest was focused on developments in the United States, where the Federal Reserve kept its interest rates close to zero.

US shares ended higher on the news there was no immediate tightening of money policy by the Fed and ahead of President Barack Obama's State of the Union address.

Markets recouped losses after the Federal Reserve policy-making body decided to keep its stimulative monetary policy unchanged and said it expected to hold "exceptionally low" rates "for an extended period", to support the economic recovery.

The Federal open market committee decision included one dissent, a departure from recent meetings, with Kansas City Fed president Thomas Hoenig believing that "the expectation of exceptionally low levels of the federal funds rate for an extended period was no longer warranted", the statement said.

Analysts said the dissent raised questions about whether the Fed was moving towards a so-called exit strategy from its extraordinary policies aimed at jolting the economy out of recession.

"The stock market took a while to decide, but eventually liked what it heard from the Federal Reserve today," Wells Fargo Advisers senior equity market strategist Scott Marcouiller said.

"The major averages turned higher in the final hour, led by bank stocks."

In New Zealand, the Reserve Bank's OCR assessment was short and to the point.

Economists are now forecasting small rises in the OCR, to a top rate of 5%.

There was never any doubt the central bank would keep the OCR unchanged.

What the market was looking for was any change in the bank's stance from December.

ANZ-National Bank chief economist Cameron Bagrie said there was a slight firming in tone, with governor Alan Bollard noting the central bank expected to begin removing the policy stimulus about the middle of the year.

"Implicitly, the bank seems more confident of the recovery that is currently under way."

However, the statement was balanced by inserting the word "comfortably" into the medium-term inflation assessment.

This appeared to carry two important connotations: do not take much notice of near-term inflation results, particularly the first quarter consumer price index being released in April; and a potentially slower-paced tightening cycle, he said.

"If inflation is expected to remain comfortably within the target band, then the process of policy normalisation could take place gradually. This appears to suggest 0.25% moves as opposed to something larger."

The OCR assessment had something for everyone and was designed to have minimal impact on the market, Mr Bagrie said.

Judging by the market reaction, the central bank was successful and could give itself a pat on the back.

The forthcoming data flow would remain critical as would be expected.

Mr Bagrie would pay close attention to credit growth trends.

Central banking in 2010 appeared relatively straightforward: If credit growth increases, remove excess liquidity.

If it remains stagnant, maintain supportive conditions, he said.

Dr Bollard speaks in Christchurch this afternoon on "The crisis and monetary policy: what we learned and where we are going".

It is possible he will talk specifically about the bank's exit strategy in holding the OCR at 2.5%.

Last year, Dr Bollard implied 0.25% movements in the OCR would not be sufficient but he appears to have changed his mind in 2010.

 

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