Forecasts revised: 12 up, nine down

Ken Lister
Ken Lister
Forsyth Barr yesterday revised its company earnings per share forecasts as the major week of the current reporting season wound up.

Of the companies reporting, Forsyth Barr downgraded nine earnings forecasts, left one unchanged and upgraded 12.

The downgrades were: Freightways (-3.2%), Property For Industry (-5.2%), Telecom (-6.8%), Michael Hill International (7.6%), Tenon (-8.9%), Contact (-10%), Steel and Tube (-12.8%), Team Talk Ltd (-14%), Abano Healthcare (32.6%).

The upgrades were: New Zealand Oil and Gas (+126%).

Tourism Holdings (+116.7%), Skellerup (+20%), NZX (+18.6%), Opus (+17.4%), Pike River Coal (+10.8%), Fletcher Building (+10.3%), ING Medical Properties (+8.1%), Mainfreight (+6.7%), Cavalier Carpets (+3.2%), Sky Network Television (+2.2%), Sky City Entertainment (+1.7%).

Unchanged was AMP NZ Office Trust.

Forsyth Barr broker Ken Lister said results in the current reporting season continued to improve after a shaky start.

To date, 55% of companies reporting had had their earnings upgraded.

"This brings aggregate results broadly into line with our expectations, which is confirmed by post-result forecast changes.

"While most CEOs have commented on challenging market conditions, the results to date have been encouraging.

"One of the biggest updates this week was Tourism Holdings.

"We have upgraded our forecast EPS [earnings per share] up 116%."

Contact had its earnings per share downgraded but most of the disappointment around the company could be attributed to low wholesale prices, he said.

"We like Contact's long-term strategic position.

"The gas storage facility will give it a monopoly on gas flexibility, the peaking plant will provide generation portfolio flexibility and its geothermal projects are among the best new generation projects in the country.

"We are therefore backing Contact as a long-term value play," he said.

The continuing problems Telecom was having with its XT mobile network prompted a minor downgrade in the company's earnings by Forsyth Barr.

After Telecom issued a revised profit guidance to "the lower half" of management's earlier earnings forecasts, Forsyth Barr adjusted its full-year forecast down from $410 million to $403 million.

"However, we had already built in a lower short-term growth profile for XT and our full-year 2011 forecast does not change."

Alcatel-Lucent was now devoting significant global resources to fixing the problem.

Mr Lister said it was his view that was an even more serious issue for Alcatel than it was for Telecom.

"Alcatel urgently needs to resolve the problem and minimise the damage to its network-building credentials and we expect there will be a full resolution within two to three months or less.

"We believe it is likely that Alcatel will indemnify Telecom for its customer compensation costs."

Telecom was devoting significant resources to ensuring that if further problems occurred, the network could be brought back up again quickly.

That should mean that any further outages were much briefer, Mr Lister said.

Although Telecom's share price was below valuation, Forsyth Barr expected news flow to remain negative for the next several months.

The recommendation on the shares was "hold", he said.

Tourism Holdings was through the worst, its profit outlook was for modest improvement for 2011.

"We believe there will be a good increase in visitor arrivals to Australasia over the next couple of years and the company is very well positioned."

Tourism Holding's asset value of $1.38 a share was a conservative base valuation target and Mr Lister reiterated the buy recommendation due to the more favourable trading outlook over the next few years.

dene.mackenzie@odt.co.nz

 

Add a Comment