Dunedin is guaranteed four MPs again after the election,
but the final make-up will not be known until the election
results are posted on September 20.
Dunedin South is the only electorate south of Christchurch
where a change is possible - but Labour MP Clare Curran, who
is not on the party list, has a 4700-plus majority which
National Party newcomer Hamish Walker will find difficult to
Ms Curran had her majority cut by 2274 in the 2011 election
by National candidate Jo Hayes, now a list MP, who will stand
in Christchurch East.
To get into Parliament, Mr Walker has to beat Ms Curran or
have National poll about 50% in the list vote.
While the party is now polling above 50%, on average across a
series of polls, it is likely to see its support fall to
below 49% on election day.
Ms Curran needs to hold her seat to return to Parliament.
The National list was announced yesterday. Mr Walker is 65 on
the party list and, if current electorate seats are held by
National, will be the 23rd list MP to get into Parliament, if
National polls above 50%.
National won the party vote in Dunedin South in 2011 with
40.2%, ahead of Labour on 35%.
In Dunedin North, Labour MP David Clark had majority of 3500
ahead of Immigration Minister Michael Woodhouse, a
Dunedin-based list MP.
Labour won the party vote in 2011 with 33.8%, ahead of
National on 32.5%.
Mr Woodhouse has moved up the list from 31 to 20, reflecting
his seniority within the party.
He is being tipped to replace retiring MP Tony Ryall as
health minister if National wins, which would result in his
cabinet ranking rising.
Green co-leader Metiria Turei is also standing in Dunedin
North, but will campaign for the party vote only. The Greens
got nearly 12% of the party vote in Dunedin North at the last
The release of National's list signalled Prime Minister John
Key is about to do deals with both Peter Dunne, in Ohariu and
Act New Zealand, in Epsom.
National's Ohariu candidate Brett Hudson is 39 on the list
and assured of a seat in Parliament, ahead of other more
high-profile candidates, if National polls 43%.
Act's David Seymour is likely to retain Epsom for the party.
National MP Paul Goldsmith is ranked 30 and campaigning only
for the party vote.
The list is dominated by male candidates.
Finance Minister Bill English is the highest ranked list-only
MP, at No2, followed by Speaker David Carter at No3, Steven
Joyce at No5, and Chris Finlayson at No8. Despite Education
Minister Hekia Parata receiving much criticism for her
handling of the portfolio, she has moved up the list to No8
from 18 in 2011.
First-time candidates Sarah Dowie (Invercargill) and Todd
Barclay (Clutha-Southland) received low list rankings, a sign
they are expected to win their seats.
Waitaki MP Jacqui Dean - expected to hold her seat - is
ranked 36 on the list.
The full list
1 John Key, Helensville
2 Bill English, List
3 David Carter, List
4 Gerry Brownlee, Ilam
5 Steven Joyce, List
6 Judith Collins, Papakura
7 Hekia Parata, Mana
8 Chris Finlayson, Rongotai
9 Paula Bennett, Upper Harbour
10 Jonathan Coleman, Northcote
11 Murray McCully, East Coast Bays
12 Anne Tolley, East Coast
13 Nick Smith, Nelson
14 Tim Groser, New Lynn
15 Amy Adams, Selwyn
16 Nathan Guy, Otaki
17 Craig Foss , Tukituki
18 Simon Bridges, Tauranga
19 Nikki Kaye, Auckland Central
20 Michael Woodhouse, Dunedin North
21 Jo Goodhew, Rangitata
22 Chester Borrows, Whanganui
23 Todd McClay, Rotorua
24 Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga, Maungakiekie
25 Nicky Wagner, Christchurch Central
26 Lindsay Tisch, Waikato
27 Louise Upston, Taupo
28 Tim Macindoe, Hamilton West
29 Jami-Lee Ross, Botany
30 Paul Goldsmith, Epsom
31 Melissa Lee, Mt Albert
32 Kanwaljit Singh Bakshi, Manukau East
33 Jian Yang, List
34 Alfred Ngaro, Te Atatu
35 Maurice Williamson, Pakuranga
36 Jacqui Dean, Waitaki
37 David Bennett, Hamilton East
38 Jonathan Young, New Plymouth
39 Brett Hudson, Ohariu
40 Maggie Barry, North Shore
41 Ian McKelvie, Rangitikei
42 Mark Mitchell, Rodney
43 Simon O'Connor, Tamaki
44 Mike Sabin, Northland
45 Scott Simpson, Coromandel
46 Paul Foster-Bell, Wellington Central
47 Joanne Hayes, Christchurch East
48 Parmjeet Parmar, Mt Roskill
49 Chris Bishop, Hutt South
50 Nuk Korako, Port Hills
51 Jono Naylor, Palmerston North
52 Maureen Pugh, West Coast Tasman
53 Misa Fia Turner, Mangere
54 Todd Barclay, Clutha-Southland
55 Andrew Bayly, Hunua
56 Matt Doocey, Waimakariri
57 Sarah Dowie, Invercargill
58 Barbara Kuriger, Taranaki-King Country
59 Todd Muller, Bay of Plenty
60 Shane Reti, Whangarei
61 Alastair Scott, Wairarapa
62 Stuart Smith, Kaikoura
63 Wayne Walford, Napier
64 Simeon Brown, Manurewa
65 Hamish Walker, Dunedin South
66 Lewis Holden, Rimutaka
67 Karl Varley, Wigram
68 Candidate TBA, Kelston
69 Linda Cooper, List
70 Letitia O'Dwyer, List
71 Mark Bridges, List
72 Boris Sokratov, List
73 Matthew Evetts, List
74 Carolyn O'Fallon, List
75 Christopher Penk, List