Several Dunedin secondary schools have recorded surges of about 20% in their year 9 rolls this year, leaving some in the sector hoping it will stave off Ministry of Education intervention in the city's secondary network.
Bayfield High School principal Judith Forbes said her school's year 9 roll had jumped from 94 in 2015 to 114 pupils this year - a 21.3% increase.
"It's a significant increase,'' she said.
"The year before that, we were in the 80s and the year before that we were in the 70s.
"But this year's a big jump for us. We've had to create an extra class to accommodate them.''
She believed the "strong growth'' was created by parents who were looking harder at how their children's education needs could best be met.
The school's new buildings were having an impact also.
"It's lovely for families to come in and see new buildings, and kids like having nice facilities.
"I think the whole values-based education that we've been doing for years, is what families are wanting - high expectations for behaviour and for learning.''
Kaikorai Valley College principal Rick Geerlofs said his school's year 9 intake was also very healthy.
Although he declined to give specific numbers, he said the 2016 year 9 roll had increased 20% from 2015.
"We are pleasantly surprised and encouraged. We certainly seem to have more students on deck this year than we did at this time in 2015.''
He believed the increase was due to a rise in the number of families coming to Dunedin.
"I would also like to think it was due to some of the great things that are going on in the school.''
Otago Girls' High School principal Linda Miller said her year 9 roll had increased almost 10% - from 165 last year to 181 this year - and was now at capacity.
Ms Miller said the school was zoned and much of the increase was due to an increase in the number of new families moving into the school's enrolment zone.
King's High School principal Dan Reddiex said his year 9 roll had also increased 5%-10%, but that would be counteracted by the number of senior pupils leaving the school.
"We're still trying to find out exactly how many senior boys are coming back, and there are a few still in transition.''
He said the roll cap did not come into effect until next year, so there was no danger of having too many boys on campus.
All other Dunedin secondary schools said their year 9 rolls had remained similar to previous years.
Rolls at Dunedin's secondary schools have been watched closely by the ministry in recent years, and during the past year, meetings have been held between Dunedin's secondary principals, board representatives and the Ministry of Education, to see if schools could find a way to make the city's secondary school network more efficient, sustainable and equitable for pupils.
The discussions were prompted by March roll return statistics which showed secondary rolls in the city had dropped by 743 pupils between 2005 and 2015 - the equivalent size of a secondary school.
Adding to concerns was the imbalance in enrolments, where pupils were flooding into a select few schools, such as King's High School, at the expense of others.
The meetings raised fears the ministry was gearing up to close one of Dunedin's secondary schools. However, the ministry has maintained there are no pre-determined outcomes.
Ms Miller hoped the year 9 increases would help stave off any ministry intervention.
"The schools in Dunedin all do a good job and I think we're incredibly fortunate to have such excellent secondary schools.''
Otago Secondary Principals' Association secretary Gordon Wilson said it remained unclear whether the year 9 roll increases would impact Dunedin's overall secondary school roll, until schools reported their rolls to the ministry in March.
Ministry sector enablement and support head Katrina Casey said the ministry was considering how best to continue discussions with the schools, and would communicate directly with them as the work continued.
Enterprise Dunedin director John Christie said there was anecdotal evidence of an increase in recent months, of families coming to Dunedin from places like Auckland.
"There are a lot of people that would move here if they could find a job that pays the right sorts of salaries, to continue the lifestyle they expect.''
