Brexit a mess: academic

Liam McIlvanney.
Liam McIlvanney.
Among the "massive'' unintended consequences of the Brexit vote, Scotland is likely to opt for independence from Great Britain within two years.

That comment was made yesterday by University of Otago Scottish studies programme director Prof Liam McIlvanney.

Prof McIlvanney, a leading Scottish studies academic and novelist, was a London-based press officer for the Scottish National Party in the early 1990s.

Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said last Friday a second Scottish independence referendum is "highly likely'' and should take place within the next two years, before Britain leaves the European Union.

Scotland voted to stay in the EU by 62% to 38% in the Brexit referendum, in contrast with the United Kingdom as a whole, which voted 52%-48% to leave.

Prof McIlvanney said that before the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, the SNP-led Scottish Government issued a 600-page official discussion document.

This white paper had considered in extensive detail a host of factors, including potential effects of independence.

By contrast, the Brexit referendum had been conducted in a "completely irresponsible way'' and had not been preceded by a similarly in-depth analysis.

British Prime Minister David Cameron had offered the referendum only as a way of dealing with internal dissent within the Conservative Party about EU issues.

If there had been something of a "leap in the dark'' to vote for Scottish independence in 2014, the situation was now reversed, and many more Scottish voters at this time favoured independence.

Brexit itself amounted to a leap into the unknown for both Scotland and Northern Ireland, which had both voted to remain in the EU.

Scottish people had made it clear they wished to stay in the EU, and would not be "dragged out'' after four decades of membership.

The Brexit result was a "mess'', with many unconsidered consequences.

If Scotland remained an EU member, and England wished to exert stricter controls on its EU border, at the lengthy Scottish border, that would interfere with traditionally free travel between the two nations.

"The institution of a hard border between Scotland and England would be very much a retrograde step.''

Any move for Scottish independence would have either neutral or positive effects for continuing links between Scotland and New Zealand, he said.

john.gibb@odt.co.nz

Add a Comment

 

Advertisement