Cunliffe not fazed by latest poll

David Cunliffe.
David Cunliffe.
Labour Party leader David Cunliffe said he wasn't putting any weight on a poll which had the party slumped to new low.

The latest stuff.co.nz/Ipsos political poll released today had National leading on 55 per cent, leaving Labour well behind on 22.5 per cent - down 2.4 percentage points on the previous poll. The Greens followed on 11.3 per cent.

"I'm actually not at all putting any weight at all on that particular poll,'' Mr Cunliffe said. "It's completely out of line with others that we've taken and other recently published polls.''

"I feel that there's been a very positive couple of weeks for Labour and I'll be keen to see what comes out in future.

"There is one poll that really matters, that's the one on the 20th of September and that's what we're all working towards.''

The poll also found that on the numbers Labour would lose five MPs to just 29.

The poll included at least 1000 New Zealand residents, was taken from August 9 to August 13 and had a margin of error of 3.1 per cent.

 

 

Theory

All good political theory, but here on the ground the little people are scared. They are scared of the reds in the cupboard and they are hanging onto the past. Thats why MMP was put in place, to put a stake in the moster. But the monster has circumvented it as much as it can. The only way forward is to mix it up. We actually do have those brave pollies, but everyone is scared of them too. We all need to grow a set and vote for the small radical parties to partner Labour, but everyone is scared of Hone, scared of Kim, scared of The Greens. They have within their ranks the St George to kill the dragon and the will to do it, but we have to give them a chance. Right now, to use another religious metaphor, John Key is the 'Servant of the Beast'. We have to get him out before any of the wonderful healing and change that you are both talking about can happen. It doesnt need to be fast. It just needs to be steady. And it has to start somewhere. Soo, a Labour government with Green and Internet Mana keeping its sights on the main game is the only way to go. It's the only possibility for real change. It isnt perfect but it is different from 'busines as usual' and its in the right direction. We have to be pragmatic here.

Putting a stake through the heart of the monster

Well said. It is a real pity that David Cunliffe is not taking this election as an opportunity to be bold. While these are good ideas it is timid stuff compared to what really needs done to this country and its economy.  Wouldn't it be wonderful to live in a nation whose leaders actually led for the benefit of the nation and not for the narrow and selfish interests of the few? To have leaders who could get us all behind them using truth and wisdom, not marketing hype and name-calling?
New Zealand has in the past year had the best terms of trade since 1974 but still we have to borrow to pay for our collective lifestyle. These terms of trade are rapidly turning south as dairy prices and log prices plummet (significant because we don't produce much else that anybody wants). Our current government meanwhile seems intent on killing off any hint of productive export enterprises by running a high dollar and high interest rates while destroying any remaining industrial capacity through cheap imports. Its only investment strategy seems to rely on subsidising things like convention centres and sport stadiums that are nothing but financial millstones around the neck of communities.
The New Zealand economy has been running up debt every year since 1974 and now most of the earnings of our dairy exports are required simply to pay the interest on the ever accumulating debt. In the same period China has risen from the ashes of the Cultural Revolution and Mao's great leap forward to be the world's leading creditor nations. while our leaders have squandered our many natural advantages, enslaved our children with mountains of debt, and sold off of our public infrastructure. China's advantage hasn't been cheap labour - India has that too - but more intelligent leadership.
China has also seen the flaws in the economic ideology imposed upon us and our economy through the Douglas reforms of the 1980s and has exploited those flaws ruthlessly. It is time we looked at the intellectual underpinnings of our free market economy to see where these are putting us wrong. It must be wrong because it is all of the free market economies that are indebted to their eyeballs and beyond while the closed and usually non-democratic economies are the creditor nations. [Abridged]

 

When Roger got religion

When Roger got religion it was the start of something big. And bad, for most of us. As Ciaran Keogh says, "Labour must deal to the frankenstein's monster it unleashed on this country with the Douglas reforms as these are at the root of our current economic malaise."
Some countries turn toxic through extremist interpretation of the word of their god(s) in holy literature. Roger Douglas converted the majority of his Labour MP colleagues to the Friedmanite Faith as preached - and ruinously practiced - by Thatcher and Reagan. The Market was the answer to all. The results of selling off to asset strippers (the railways for instance) and applying the Holy Market Model (Bradford's electricity reforms) has been an increase in the amount of NZers' money ending up in the hands of the rich, in overseas-owned banks. And that's not all! It's ended up in the accounts of overseas people and companies!
Everyone makes mistakes, it's the putting right that counts. So what have successive governments done to put it right? Well, Labour's Rogernomes were followed by National's era of Ruthenasia, Ruth Richardson being a Minister - of the Holy Market Faith. To be fair it was a more logical fit with National.
Labour had always been the party whose philosophy fitted the aims and needs of the common worker, and those who believed in the worth of community as well as opportunities for individuals to make the most of opportunities, and these opportunities should be available to all.
But when the chasm between faith and reality showed up, other than buying back at high price some of our stripped assets that had been sold, what did they do about the "frankenstein's monster"? They got out their feather dusters to deal with some of the mess around its lair, all the time carefully averting their eyes lest it rise and smite unbelievers. Such is the power of Holy Market Faith's hold.[Abridged]

 

 

Polls

That's why National dropped 6% at the last election from what the pundits had been calling all year. If that happens again, National is out. Politics all over Europe have become government by coalition. It's the way things are going as populations realise the danger of one-party governments and the rush of power to the head that gives them.

Coalitions are the only way forward with diverse parties keeping each other honest. Voters that are left-leaning in their politics are more likely to be progressive thinkers. Thats as true historically as it is today. The more politically savvy populations become the less likely they are to be fooled by the right wing politics of traditional political outmoded theory.

That's why the left wing has become MMP savvy and the National party supporters are still playing 'winner takes all'. But eventually the economy wont be able to withstand the continued taking without giving back to the people that are the backbone of it. Things will change. Even here. Even if by some misfortune nobody reads the writing on the wall at this election and has the studity to vote Key back in, it will change because the world is changing whether right wing pundits like Its Me like it or not.

Polls are quite accurate

Sparrowhawk - You say "polls are a stunt and mean nothing", well I suggest you check out the polls at the last election and compare to the actual result as you need to look at the facts making up stories. The challenge on the left for Labour is they have lost too many votes to little parties which makes it really hard to form a Government - too many lefties won't help their cause. A party slightly right of centre like National has dominating polling numbers and although few allies they are in a much better position than to try and gain a mismatch of Lefties to form a Govenment. Sparrowhawk wait till the 20/9 to see whether the polls are about right. The margin of error in my world is 3%, and the margin of error is considerably higher.

Problem is systemic

Agreed, but it was allowed to happen because of the way governments manage the banking system - all were hooked on debt and NZ was among the worst. We survived the GFC better than most because China was buying our milk and Australia's iron ore when elsewhere international trade was turning to custard.

All that did was delay our day of reckoning.

Property prices inflated hugely under the last government and Auckland property prices have inflated by another 30%-plus in the past three years. This will destroy us all economically in short order if we don't get it under control.

This should not be a Labour did this-National did that debate. The problem is systemic and goes back to Roger Douglas's (and Reagan/Thatcher) deregulation of the banking system.

 

True

You're right. National wont do it. Labour and the Left must bring about a change from the neo-liberal politics that Labour brought in 1984. That's why we voted for MMP - so that no party could have the power in that way ever again. Unfortunately, National (and Labour) dont like that because it diffuses the power they have to make unilateral changes. But that's the point. MMP wont work properly until people vote properly in it. Thats why we must stop thinking National v Labour and start thinking blocs of coalitions.

Out of touch

Its Me, you are soooo out of touch. Dont you realise these polls mean nothing?? They are run as a stunt. You cant poll FFP methods in an MMP election and get any sort of accuracy. National is the coverage of the whole right wing spectrum because they havent learnt to vote stratagically. On the other hand those of the left have, and spread their vote over a variety of parties to encourage less hegonomy. National is like a monoculture and they have a tendancy to get diseased. That's exactly what has happened. If you look at the stats for the whole spectrum of left wing parties together, you find that Left and National are running pretty close to neck a neck. It hasn't been about National verses Labour for a couple of decades. The polls just makes for adversorial news coverage that sells papers - that's all.

Surpluses

They ran surpluses, mate. And the subprime mortgage debacle was a world phenomena.

Labour ran surpluses but...

Labour did run surpluses but at the same time did more to make Kiwis poor than any other government by allowing the Ausssie banks to stuff our real estate market full of debt.  

It's not what the last Labour government did do that is the problem, it is what they didn't do - they didn't prevent the Aussie banks from wrecking our economy by burdening it with unnecessary debt.

Until we get rid of the Reserve Bank Act which incentivises the banks to fill the country with debt and find a better way of managing the way banks create debt NZ will remain an economic basket case. 

Labour must deal to the frankenstein's monster it unleashed on this country with the Douglas reforms as these are at the root of our current economic malaise  National won't do it as  their elite are the few who are beneficiairies of the Douglas reforms. 

Labour's chance of winning

Marious says its looking more and more likely that Labour will win the election and I could take over from Cameron Slater. Perhaps Marious should go back to year 1 at school and learn the numbers again. Check out the polls. My calculations on Labour wining the election are 100,000 to 1 (The 1 being Marious). I guess Marious might be an option for the next Labour leader, however, as they will struggle to find one shortly.

Labour mismanged the economy

Labour encouraged the housing bubble that saw $60b in mortgage debt skyrocket to $160 billion, in just a five years, to own the same houses.

When the country is spending $100 billion more than it earned in such a short time, of course the economy will look good temporarily.

We were taking on so much debt that effectively the whole country was spending $1.15 for every $1 they earned.

It was a disaster waiting to happen. And no one did anything to stop it. Just the opposite - the Labour govt encouraged it to continue.

 

America

As someone said, with the National politic we might just as well live in America. If John Key had his way, we would be just another state. So I suggest that those that don't like the prospects of a decent people-minded Kiwi Government in power might want to think of immigrating and please take John Key with you.

Numbers

But you're not doing them are you? You are guessing. Labour ran surpluses for their whole term. They were better at managing the money. Plus there was a healthy superannuation fund that National have squandered. Not sure where you neoliberal types get your information from. Probably blogs. Whaleoil perhaps?

Change seems more likely

It's looking more likely evey day we will have a Labour-led government after the election. Poor old Its Me seems almost frantic over the prospect. 

Get used to it, Its Me. You could always take over from Cameron Slater.  

Do the numbers

Lyndon - Interesting you say National's debt has grown uncontrollably. So what would the debt be if Labour had been in Government? My guess about $150 billion! I love how you say you support free doctors visits and yet you hate the country having debt. Free doctors visits, while nice, will not help reduce debt Lyndon. Simple economics really. Also how often will hyperchondriacs go top the doctor with this policy? Daily or weekly? Doctors will love it and so might you but it won't help your debt situation. If you are concerned about debt do the numbers and you will support National.

Wrong

Sorry GW_Scam you are wrong , the debt wasn't 20 bil when National took over it was 10bil or 5% of GDP, its now 84.5 bil or 37.91% of GDP and with interest of $132 dollars per second or 4.1 billion a year (asset sales gained slighty more).

Its Me says they have reduced spending but they haven't - even before the GFC and Earthquakes National was borrowing 10 billion a year and plan on continuing to do so, they were just hiding it in long term debt rather than annual balance sheets (the same thing Key was doing at Merrill Lynch and the New York Federal Reserve resulting in trouble for both).

Now he's doing the same to NZ, it's either putting stuff into long term debt so the annual balance sheet looks good (akin to paying for $500 of repairs to your car by adding to the mortgage to make you annual wage look better), or paying for things that should be annual spending out of the Asset sales slush fund ie spending on PM security detail improvements, Parliamentary Broadcasting etc from funds that were meant to be for education, hospitals and so on.

Speaking of which why is National planning to debt fund Dunedin Hospital rebuild/upgrade and make our already underfunded DHB pay 20mil in interest out of the exsisting budget when they have a fund that could pay for it free and clear.

As for free health, I say yes please I can think of lots of Govt spending that I would rather see cut to finance this, Free Healthcare and Free Education get my vote over corporate welfare any day I wouldn't even mind higher taxes if it meant it was truely Free. Taxes well spent in a Socalist Country I say otherwise you might as well be living in America. [abridged]

Questionable

The savings that have been gained are by beating up those that are the most vulnerable among us and spending it on corporations. Its me, if you think thats a good idea, then your name suits you. It actually needs to be about *us* if we are going to thrive as a nation. Personally, I would rather have people go to the doctors for a snivel as you put it than have them die because they cant afford a doctors visit.

And thats the difference between National voters and others...its all about them. It doesnt matter if most of the country is crumbling down around our ears, as long as they and their mates are making a motza, its all good. Well it isnt and the politics of selfishness must come to an end, not just here, but worldwide. If we dont start pulling together we will die separately, lonely, possibly with all our money rotting in the bank, or our assets mouldering somewhere, because nobody cares.

Pays to know the facts

'It's Me' seems to believe the current Gov't has done "many great things" - like 'reduce and excessive Gov't spending'. The problem you have 'It's Me' is you seem to be basing your comments on what Key tells you, rather than actual facts.

Firstly, the cuts National has made have resulted in hospitals struggling to function, a military almost inoperable (some Navy ships are now dock based as they have no crew!), and Border protection at such a low - it is scary what has been sneaking into NZ.

Then we have the debt! It was at $20 billion when National took power, it is now at a record breaking horrendous $85 billion, rising over three billion just in the last few months! (Yes, the recession ended well over a year ago!).

As for people using the Drs more because they are free (remember only for selected groups), overseas examples do not show that happens. In the UK all Healthcare is free for everyone, and their GP visit rates are little different to any other Country.

I suggest people 'think before they vote', look at what has been happening to our health, education and other public services. Also look at the incredible revelations now coming to light about National - including alleged blackmail, hacking, threats, cronyism, etc, and of course our land and resources being sold off to Overseas buyers like a quick fire raffle!

Oh one last thing 'It's Me' the latest Polls show National closer to 45% than 55%, and falling.

BTW - I am not a Nat or Labour/Greens supporter, just someone who looks at facts rather than spin.

Government

Lynden - You have recocgnised some of the things that frustrate you as an individual. You have not talked about all the great things that National have done (and there are many) including reducing waste and excessive Government over-spending. What a classic your Labour wants to give free healthcare to over 1 Million people. Do you want to subsidise every person to go to the Doctor for every sniffle (as that will happen) some people will go to the Doctor weekly as it's free. I guess you are in a minority with your views Lynden as 55% don't agree with you. The proof on whether this Govenment is as bad as you think takes place on 20th Septemer by a vote. Watch and wait and see.

Promises

Now who's making promises they can't keep Its Me , and if you think National's been doing a great job your are blind - record debt, changing laws to suit individual business, interfering with police investigations, selling assets that 80% of the populace voted against, using money from said sales for everything but the stated purpose, can't even get a payroll database working properly, selling conservation land without consultation, a static or dropping median wage, refusal to recognise the problem of overseas ownership, Chch rebuild is a joke , The whole Hillside workshops fiasco (which has now cost more than if Hillside built them), the Invermay saga, giving Tiwai smelter 30 mil to stay open 1 extra year but underfunding the DHB so that it can't afford 100k a year for the physio pool etc.

Labour's out

Does anyone seriously think with 1 out of every 4 voters that Labour will win the election without their hotch potch set of buddies? If they do I will buy the Stadium and reinstate Hillside workshops and take the population of our city out for a nice cup of tea. If they need to rely on their buddies to get into parliament imagine of the mess imagine your friends at Labour working with Greens, NZ First, Maori, United, Conservatives and Dotcom. Now that would be a good laugh. Fortunately we have a great Government that is getting high accolades and the proof is in the pudding i.e. over half the population will vote for them.

Not another one!

Please give us a break - these polls are complete nonsense, and should be banned this close to the Election.

Nobody in their right mind would, believe a word of it.

 

 

Agree

Yes its obvious as the nose on your face really isn't it? I think the media is living in fantasy land and would like us all to believe that its real. Smacks of "The Truman Story". But I think so many have looked beyond the curtain that its not taken seriously any more. National and the media supporting them just dont realise it yet. And won't til they lose the election.

As the billboard says ...

Wow, what a surprise. A right wing media polling company just happens to release a poll showing National with high support and Labour with low support - the day after revelations big enough to bring down a Government. How did I see that one coming! But to be fair, let's analyse the last few weeks:

Labour outlines several policies that are people and region friendly. National releases, umm - we are going to build some more roads?

Labour engages in a positive campaign. National faces criticism after criticism of dishonesty, cronyism, public displays of what can only be described as 'hate' for the current PM, revelations of a failing health and education system, and regions that are dying.

So - National goes up, and Labour goes down? Yeah, right. BTW, I am not even a National or Labour supporter!  But I do have eyes, ears and common sense!