National has taken a hit in the first poll since Nicky
Hager's Dirty Politics was released but the Greens, not Labour,
are the big winners so far.
Labour, in fact, has dropped a little - 1.3 points to 25.2
per cent - although leader David Cunliffe's popularity has
The Greens have jumped 3.8 points to 13.7 per cent which
would give them 18 MPs, boosting their numbers by four.
National has fallen by 4.9 points to 50 per cent.
There has been a marked fall in the numbers who think the
country is heading in the right direction, down from 57 to
51.1 per cent. National would still be able to govern alone
based on this poll, whether or not its current support
partners, the Maori Party, Act and United Future, were
New Zealand First polls just under the 5 per cent threshold
at 4.7 per cent and would not be returned to Parliament on
this poll result, although several recent polls have the
party just over it.
In a hypothetical scenario, if NZ First were to make the
threshold by taking 0.7 support from the Conservatives, it
would be a lot tighter, with National being able to govern
with a majority of only one and requiring partners for any
degree of comfort.
In this poll the Conservatives are up 1.4 points to 2.6, and
not in Parliament without an electorate seat. At 2.1 per
cent, Internet-Mana leader Hone Harawira would bring in two
other MPs, Laila Harre and Annette Sykes, assuming he keeps
his electorate seat.
Labour had a successful campaign launch in early August,
promising free doctor visits to pensioners. But it appears
not to have paid off in the poll with support among older
The Greens launched their campaign with a $1 billion package
to address child poverty, setting a new top tax rate of 40
per cent, and promising students free public transport in
In the preferred prime minister stakes, John Key has fallen
8.5 points from the last poll to 64.8 per cent, back to where
he was before his unusually high ratings in July following a
particularly bad patch for Mr Cunliffe.
Mr Cunliffe has gone up 4.1 points to 14.6 points, a
reflection possibly that he is getting a higher profile
through his campaign, although the party isn't getting any
Its messaging and everybody else's may be being drowned out
by the volume of political fallout from the Hager book.
The book suggests a close association of National MPs and
advisers with right-wing attack blogger Cameron Slater and
has consumed most of the political oxygen in the past week.
The book was released last Wednesday and DigiPoll began
polling on Thursday.
Approval for Mr Key's performance as party leader is high
with 59.6 per cent rating it as superb or satisfactory, 23
per cent average and only 16.6 per cent as poor or bad.
Mr Cunliffe's performance as party leader was rated as superb
or satisfactory by 19.2 per cent, average by 43. 2 per cent
and poor or bad by 31.9 per cent.
The poll of 750 respondents was taken between August 14 and
20. The party vote results are of decided voters only.
Undecided voters were 12.5 per cent. The poll has a margin of
error of plus or minus 3.6 per cent.
National 50 (down 4.9)
Labour 25.2 (down 1.3)
Greens 13.7 (up 3.8)
NZ First 4.3 (down 0.3)
Maori Party 0.7 (up 0.2)
Mana-Internet 2.1 (down 0.1)
Act 0.6 (up 0.6)
United Future 0.4 (up 0.4)
Conservatives 2.6 (up 1.4)
Aotearoa Legalise Cannabis (down 0.1)
Preferred Prime Minister
John Key Nation 64.8
David Cunliffe Labour 14.6 (up 4.1)
Winston Peters NZ First 5.1 (down 0.4)
Russel Norman 3.5 Greens (up 1.5)
David Shearer 1.5 Labour (down 0.7)
Helen Clark 1.4 former PM (up 0.9)
Seats in the house
NZ First 0
Internet Mana 3
Maori Party 1
United Future 1
- Based on the assumption that the Maori, Mana, United
Future and Act parties keep one seat.
The poll of 750 respondents was conducted between August 14
and 20 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 per
cent. On the party vote questions 12.5 per cent were