New Zealand First, the Conservatives and Internet Mana are on
the move up and Labour is still slipping, in the latest
Herald DigiPoll survey.
That will be unwelcome news to Labour leader David Cunliffe
as he prepares for his first face-off against Prime Minister
John Key in the election campaign, at 7 pm tonight on One.
National is up fractionally and could still govern alone with
Mr Key's personal popularity is up 3 points to 67.8 per cent.
Last weekend's campaign launch by National and its first-home
buyers package has seen the first real break in saturation
coverage of fallout from Nicky Hager's Dirty Politics
New Zealand First has broken the 5 per cent threshold and
leader Winston Peters has leapt up the preferred Prime
Minister stakes by 3.1 points to within striking distance of
Mr Cunliffe, who is down 2.8 to 11.6 per cent.
Colin Craig's Conservatives have risen 0.7 of a point to 3.3
per cent and would not have MPs in Parliament at that level.
In yesterday's TV3 poll the Conservatives were on 4.6 and
would not have seats in Parliament either, but the clear
trend is upwards for both the Conservatives and New Zealand
But the big mover in the DigiPoll survey is Internet Mana
which is up by 1.3 to 3.4 per cent.
That would bring Laila Harre, Annette Sykes and John Minto
into Parliament, assuming that leader Hone Harawira keeps his
Te Tai Tokerau seat.
The Greens have fallen 2.3 point to 11.4 per cent although
their support commonly fluctuates.
Labour appears to be on a steady decline from 30.5 per cent
in June, 26.5 in July, 25.2 last week and to 24.1 in today's
If Labour mustered the support of New Zealand First, the
Greens and Internet Mana, combined they would have 55 seats.
National and its current support partners the Maori Party,
Act and United Future would have 67 seats, assuming that the
support partners each kept an electorate seat.
But the party vote support for Act and United Future is so
small that they would create an overhang.
That is when parties are able to keep any electorate seat won
and extend Parliament beyond 120 seats if the Party Vote
entitlement is less than electorates actually won.
That is one of the reasons it made sense for National to back
Act and United Future even though they were polling less than
1 per cent, because any overhang would be extra seats for the
The Herald DigiPoll survey will run weekly during the
The full party vote results compared with last week's:
National 50.7 (up 0.7)
Labour 24.1 (down 1.1)
Greens 11.4 (down 2.3)
NZ First 5 (up 0.7)
Maori Party 1 (up 0.3)
Internet Mana 3.4 (up 1.3)
Conservatives 3.3 (up 0.7)
Act 0.3 (down 0.3)
United Future 0.2 (down 0.2)
PREFERRED PRIME MINISTER (compared with last week)
John Key 67.8 (up 3)
David Cunliffe 11.6 (down 2.8)
Winston Peters 8.2 (up 3.1)
Russel Norman 3.8 (up 0.3)
• The poll of 750 eligible voters was conducted between
August 21 and 27. The Party vote is of decided voters only
and 7.9 per cent were undecided compared to 12.5 per cent