Internet-Mana would have four MPs in Parliament including
veteran activist John Minto, if its support in the latest
Herald-DigiPoll survey were translated to an election result.
But on the basis of the poll they would head straight to
Opposition, alongside Labour.
Labour is continuing a decline and polled 24.1 in the new
poll. It polled 30.5 per cent in June, 26.5 in July, and 25.2
National is up marginally to 50.7 per cent and would be able
to govern alone with 64 MPs.
At 3.4 per cent, Internet-Mana leader Hone Harawira would
bring in Laila Harre, Annette Sykes and Mr Minto so long as
Mr Harawira keeps Te Tai Tokerau or Ms Sykes wins Waiariki
from Maori Party co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell.
New Zealand First and the Conservatives are also on the way
up as often happens to small parties given exposure in an
New Zealand First breaks the 5 per cent threshold and would
have six MPs in Parliament but the Conservatives are on 3.3
per cent and would have no MPs.
A leap in personal popularity for New Zealand First leader
Winston Peters from 5.1 per cent to 8.2 per cent suggests his
party could pick up even more support and hold the balance of
power if National falls a few points.
Under the poll scenario, a centre-left bloc of Labour's 31
seats, the Greens' 14, Mana's four and New Zealand First's
six would reach 55 compared with a centre-right combination
of 67 comprising National's 64 and one each from the Maori
Party, Act and United Future.
The popularity of John Key has risen three points to 67.8 per
cent as preferred Prime Minister.
Labour leader David Cunliffe has slipped by 2.8 points to
11.8 per cent.
The most significant movement is a bounce in the number of
people who believe the Government is moving in the right
direction, up from 51.1 per cent last week to 57 per cent.
Mr Peters will not say which party New Zealand First would
prefer to govern with and remaining outside Government is
always a possibility.
He worked in a formal coalition with National in 1996 and a
confidence and supply agreement outside Government with
Labour in 2005.
Mr Key said yesterday he believed Mr Peters had genuinely
intended to stay outside Government in 2005 but Labour needed
him to go into Government - the alternative would have been a
five-party coalition headed by Don Brash.