Deal with Craig may be on horizon

Colin Craig.
Colin Craig.
With New Zealand's MMP system of voting, the party vote decides how many MPs each party will have in Parliament after each election. However, there still remain some key must-win electorates to ensure some MPs and parties return, stay or enter Parliament. Political editor DeneMackenzie explains.

Conservative Party leader Colin Craig could be a major winner at the election on Saturday if current polling is correct and his party manages to sneak over the 5% threshold to enter Parliament.

Prime Minister John Key ruled out setting an electorate aside for Mr Craig to win with the help of National Party voters, believing a deal with Mr Craig was a deal too far.

Unfazed by the rejection, Mr Craig grew stronger and more determined to win and may just end up finding Mr Key knocking on his door on Sunday offering to have a chat about a coalition or supply and confidence deal.

Mr Craig will be in a stronger position for not having had an electorate deal from National, although do not be surprised to see Mr Key give some encouragement this week for voters to tick the Conservative Party vote box.

But first things first.

National has done an electorate deal with United Future leader Peter Dunne for many elections whereby National candidates campaign for the party vote but encourage voters to cast their electorate vote for Mr Dunne.

On National's present polling, Ohariu will have Mr Dunne and a National Party candidate entering on the list.

Epsom has been on the tip of many tongues with David Seymour holding the future of Act New Zealand in his hands.

If Mr Seymour is elected as the Act MP of Epsom, and that is very likely, Act remains in Parliament although Mr Seymour will likely join Mr Dunne as the sole representative of his party in Parliament.

The National-held seat of Napier is proving something of a problem for the Government and Mr Key has had a couple of trips there trying to persuade voters to replace retiring MP Chris Tremain with Wayne Walford.

Enter former Sensible Sentencing Trust head Garth McVicar, who is standing in Napier for the Conservatives.

While Mr McVicar is unlikely to win the seat, despite Mr Craig's confidence, he will take votes from National and could allow former MP and Labour candidate Stuart Nash to win.

Mr Nash must win the seat to return to power as he chose not to be on Labour's list.

If the Conservatives reach 5%, Mr McVicar will enter Parliament along with former Work and Income boss Christine Rankin.

Another three Labour MPs not on the list are Dunedin South MP Clare Curran, Port Hills MP Ruth Dyson and Hutt South MP Trevor Mallard.

All would have got a low list ranking and chose to stand or fall on winning their electorates.

Ms Curran and Ms Dyson are up against first-time National candidates Hamish Walker and Nuk Korako respectively, and Mr Mallard is up against former National Party staffer Chris Bishop.

Messrs Bishop and Korako are high enough to be elected through the list but Mr Walker must win the seat to get into Parliament.

The future of the Maori Party is also at stake on Saturday with co-leader Te Ururoa Flavell expected to easily retain his Waiariki seat and take another two MPs into Parliament with him.

With co-leader Tariana Turia not standing, Labour expects to win her Te Tai Hauauru electorate but a recent poll had Maori Party candidate Chris McKenzie ahead.

Rangi McLean is in a close race with Labour candidate Peeni Henare to retain the seat held by retiring Maori Party MP Pita Sharples.

Internet Mana has much riding on the success of Mana leader Hone Harawira retaining Te Tai Tokerau because without Mr Harawira, the Kim Dotcom-funded Internet Mana will implode immediately after the election.

Mr Harawira is up against Labour MP Kelvin Davis, who took no heed of Labour's call to campaign just for the list vote.

Winning the seat is make or break for both men.

Mr Davis is so far down on Labour's list he has little chance of returning to Parliament.

Internet Mana is polling below 5% and Mr Harawira must win to stay.

Also of interest in the South is how Clutha-Southland National candidate Todd Barclay will fare.

Mr Barclay is expected to easily win the seat held until Saturday by Finance Minister Bill English, who captured nearly 70% of the 31,056 valid electorate votes cast for candidates in the electorate in 2011.

Mr English won in 2008 with a majority of 15,475.

Invercargill will also get a new MP on Saturday night, with National candidate Sarah Dowie set for an easy win in the seat vacated by long-serving MP Eric Roy.

The Labour candidate is two-time list MP and perennial candidate Lesley Soper, who is not on the party list.

There will be interest, too, in whether Labour list MP Clayton Cosgrove can reclaim Waimakariri now Kate Wilkinson has retired and Matt Doocey is the National Party candidate.

dene.mackenzie@odt.co.nz

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