National in poll position but Peters the outlier

Winston Peters
Winston Peters
COMMENT: National is on track to win a commanding majority of votes tomorrow, but the man of the moment continues to be New Zealand First leader Winston Peters.

As of yesterday, Mr Peters still remained the outlier of the election, with no indication of who he will support in coalition.

He is being wooed by both National and Labour - a situation with which he is familiar.

Mr Peters once kept the country guessing for nearly six weeks as he played the two parties against each other before finally signing a deal with former National prime minister Jim Bolger.

Mr Peters and his party have grown in confidence and support during the campaign.

He has kept up a punishing schedule of visits to smaller centres, talking to mainly elderly audiences about things that matter to them: superannuation, the GoldCard, foreign ownership of land and immigration.

Mr Peters' support is vital if Labour leader David Cunliffe is to have any chance of forming a government.

Mr Cunliffe will, however, likely also need the Greens, Internet Mana and the Maori Party - and he has already ruled the latter two parties out of any deal.

While Labour will lead any centre-left government should one be formed after tomorrow, it is the Green Party - whose goal is to become the largest party of the left - which says it is gathering strength.

The Greens again said yesterday it had led the Opposition during the past three years and was now ready to lead the government.

For all that, it is Prime Minister John Key who will get first crack at forming a government on Sunday - and it will be a shock if he has not already talked to several potential partners.

Mr Key surprised all in 2008 when he revealed on election night he had struck a deal with the Maori Party.

He did not need the Maori Party then, but the advance deal ensured its support in 2011.

He certainly needs the Maori Party this time around, and retaining Whanau Ora will probably swing the deal.

Act New Zealand Epsom candidate David Seymour and United Future leader Peter Dunne will immediately throw their fortunes in with National.

Those agreements are easy: extend charter schools for Act and consider flexi-superannuation for Mr Dunne.

There is plenty to watch tomorrow, and the future of some senior politicians rests with the results.

Long-serving Labour MPs Trevor Mallard and Ruth Dyson are at risk of losing their seats and neither is on the list.

Labour may win back Napier, thanks to Conservative candidate Garth McVicar standing and splitting National's vote.

Te Tai Tokerau MP Hone Harawira and Labour MP Kelvin Davis are polling neck and neck and each needs to win to return to Parliament.

Without Mr Harawira, Internet Party implodes on Sunday.

One of the most watched results will be whether the Colin Craig-led and funded Conservative Party gets above 5%.

Mr Craig this week said internal polling had the party at 5.5%, but his press secretary resigned suddenly yesterday, calling Mr Craig manipulative.

That may put off some voters.

If so, it may yet be a big blow to National - which could well prefer Conservative supportto doing a deal with Mr Peters.

dene.mackenzie@odt.co.nz

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