Meat export focus shifting to emerging markets

The global financial crisis has increased the reliance on meat markets in emerging markets, as consumers in traditionally high-value markets trade down the value of cuts they buy, according to Rabobank.

A report by the specialist rural banker says while Europe remains our most valuable sheep-meat market, expected average economic growth of just 2.1% through until 2015 limited the potential for further growth.

It was a similar story for the United States, but this was in contrast to growth of 8% a year in China and India through until 2015.

Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand were expecting annual grow of 5%, and the Middle East and Africa 4%.

Meat consumption in developing markets would never match that of Europe and the US, but incremental gains in heavily populated emerging markets would increase sheep-meat consumption 21% and beef 15% by 2019, the report said.

"Advanced economies contribute little to this growth outlook. In fact, annual sheep-meat consumption in OECD countries is expected to decline by 6.5% over this forecast period."

The composition of New Zealand's beef production in particular could have an impact.

While beef production was growing, most of it originated from the dairy sector and was of manufacturing quality and unsuitable to be sold as prime cuts.

However, it was ideal for the cooking style in emerging markets, the report said.

The issue was whether consumers in those markets would pay prices equivalent to or better than could be received from existing markets.

Most New Zealand beef exports to the US were of manufacturing quality and used in the takeaway and fast-food sectors, while lamb was sold mainly through the restaurant and food-service sector.

These sectors were expected to recover more rapidly than retail grocery sales.

In the United Kingdom, prospects for sheep meat were described as mixed, with consumers quickly returning to buying higher-value cuts.

But lamb remained a meat for special occasions and consumption was unlikely to continue increasing, the report said.

The European Union forecasts per capita sheep-meat consumption to fall to 2.5kg in 2011, amounting to an 11% decline over five years, but domestic production was expected to fall 2% by 2015, presenting New Zealand with opportunities.

"However, a declining consumer base for a high-value niche product presents risks to market sustainability in the long term for both volume and price."