Cup matches to go, official hints

AMI Stadium in Christchurch, which is one of the major venues for the Rugby World Cup later this...
AMI Stadium in Christchurch, which is one of the major venues for the Rugby World Cup later this year. Photo by NZPA.
Auckland is set to host more Rugby World Cup games, including two quarterfinals, with quake-affected Christchurch looking likely to lose its matches, the Weekend Herald has learned.

A senior official at the International Rugby Board says the chances are firmly against Christchurch being able to stage its seven scheduled matches during the World Cup, including two quarterfinals.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said it would be a "mammoth effort" to rebuild Christchurch in time for the September tournament.

"Most intelligent people would say the infrastructure and hotels would not be there and ready in time. And even if they were, would people want to go to Christchurch ?

"There is a huge risk, a massive risk ... as regards further earthquakes."

He said that if Christchurch were to lose its games, most of them if not all would be shifted to Auckland.

"My feeling would be that the only city that could cope with the extra matches would be Auckland. It is the biggest city," he said.

But the official stressed that no decision had been made, partly because of the sensitive nature of the subject and because the damage to Christchurch facilities was still being assessed.

A decision would likely be made at the board's next meeting on March 25, he said.

This comes as GNS Science geological hazard modeller Matt Gerstenberger says rugby fans visiting Christchurch will have to contend with a magnitude-4 or greater aftershock every few weeks during the tournament.

Mr Gerstenberger said the frequency and severity of aftershocks Christchurch residents were experiencing should greatly reduce in the months leading up to the Rugby World Cup.

But he said the probability of an earthquake of magnitude 6 or greater within the next year was roughly 6%.

The probability of another big earthquake becomes "slightly smaller" if only September and October are considered when games are scheduled to be played in Christchurch.

"They [aftershocks] will continue to decrease, of course.

It will be even less frequent than every few days by September," Mr Gerstenberger said.

"Magnitude 4s or greater will continue to decrease from September to less than once every couple of weeks."

"This is preliminary work which we are currently putting a lot of effort into, so this work will be developing."

Mr Gerstenberger said Christchurch was still being rattled by roughly one magnitude-4 aftershock a day.

GNS models predict that within two weeks the number should drop to one magnitude-4 every three to four days.

In a year, Christchurch residents should expect one a month, he said.

The chance of another large aftershock decreases by the day, but seismologists cannot rule out another magnitude-5 or 6 tremor as the Lyttelton epicentred-earthquake was itself believed to be an aftershock.

Rugby World Cup Minister Murray McCully, who this week received a verbal report on the state of the stadium and expects to receive full engineering reports this weekend, said he would not respond to comments from unnamed sources.

However, Prime Minister John Key yesterday slated the suggestion that Christchurch could already be written off as a cup venue.

He expected a decision would be made within 10 days.

Meanwhile, Auckland hospitality and business leaders were confident the city would cope with any influx of visitors extra games would bring.

More than 119,000 tickets have already been sold for cup games in Christchurch.

The two quarterfinals scheduled for October 8 and 9 in Christchurch would bring the biggest increase in visitors, but at a time when Auckland would not be hosting other games.

"Auckland is ready for the big bulge the semifinals and final. So to add another couple of games on is a relatively straightforward proposition," Graeme Osborne, the former head of Tourism Auckland, said.

"It's pushing out the shoulder of the finals bulge, that's all. If we assume Auckland can accommodate the finals, then it's safe to assume Auckland can accommodate two quarterfinals."

Michael Baines, the chief executive of the Motel Association, agreed, and said any pressure on accommodation caused by extra pool games could be absorbed by the greater Auckland region.

"I think Auckland will handle it standing on its head ... sometimes we get carried away by our own sense of isolation. An onerous commute doesn't necessarily enter into it for our visitors."

While shifting the quarterfinals would be relatively straightforward, deciding where to move pool games in order to minimise disruption to supporters' itineraries would be more difficult.

The well-supported England team is scheduled to play Romania in Dunedin less than a week after its game against Georgia in Christchurch on September 18.

Alex Swney, chief executive of Heart of the City, said package tours for the cup could be "hideously" complicated, but Auckland would cater for any extra visitors.

Christchurch's less anticipated pool games, such as Argentina versus Scotland, could well be moved to North Harbour stadium.

However, the Eden Park Neighbours' Association has confirmed it would not object to Eden Park hosting all seven games, if that was necessary.

 - Weekend Herald.

 

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