Temperatures to rise 4C by 2100 - study

The sun is seen behind smoke billowing from a chimney of a heating plant in Taiyuan, Shanxi province. A coal-dependent manufacturing base has made China the world's biggest contributor to climate change. REUTERS
The sun is seen behind smoke billowing from a chimney of a heating plant in Taiyuan, Shanxi province. A coal-dependent manufacturing base has made China the world's biggest contributor to climate change. REUTERS
Global average temperatures will rise at least 4C by 2100 and potentially more than 8C by 2200 if carbon dioxide emissions are not reduced, according to a major climate change study published today.

The Australian study, which is in the journal Nature, found global climate is more sensitive to carbon dioxide than most previous estimates.

The research also appears to solve one of the great unknowns of climate sensitivity, the role of cloud formation and whether this will have a positive or negative effect on global warming.

In New Zealand, four degrees of warming would mean extreme rainfall events would increase by more than 30 per cent, marked drying everywhere in summer, and varying and widespread impacts on agriculture.

Under the 2200 scenario, the climate of Auckland would become equal to that of Tonga, glacier cover would vanish, and sea levels up to 3m higher would pose serious issues for our coastal centres.

"Our research has shown climate models indicating a low temperature response to a doubling of carbon dioxide from pre-industrial times are not reproducing the correct processes that lead to cloud formation," said Professor Steven Sherwood, the lead author from the University of New South Wales' Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science.

"When the processes are correct in the climate models the level of climate sensitivity is far higher."

Previously, estimates of the sensitivity of global temperature to a doubling of carbon dioxide ranged from 1.5C to 5C, he said.

"This new research takes away the lower end of climate sensitivity estimates, meaning that global average temperatures will increase by 3C to 5C with a doubling of carbon dioxide."

The key to this narrower but much higher estimate could be found in the real world observations around the role of water vapour in cloud formation.

Observations showed that when water vapour was taken up by the atmosphere through evaporation, the updraughts could either rise to 15km to form clouds that produce heavy rains or rise just a few kilometres before returning to the surface without forming rain clouds.

When updraughts rise only a few kilometres they reduce total cloud cover because they pull more vapour away from the higher cloud-forming regions.

However water vapour was not pulled away from cloud-forming regions when only deep 15km updraughts were present.

The researchers found climate models that show a low global temperature response to carbon dioxide do not include enough of this lower-level water vapour process.

Instead they simulate nearly all updraughts as rising to 15km and forming clouds.

When only the deeper updraughts are present in climate models, more clouds form and there is an increased reflection of sunlight. Consequently, the global climate in these models becomes less sensitive in its response to atmospheric carbon dioxide.

However, real world observations showed this behaviour is wrong.

When the processes in climate models are corrected to match the observations in the real world, the models produce cycles that take water vapour to a wider range of heights in the atmosphere, causing fewer clouds to form as the climate warms.

This increased the amount of sunlight and heat entering the atmosphere and, as a result, increases the sensitivity of our climate to carbon dioxide or any other perturbation.

The result is that when water vapour processes are correctly represented, the sensitivity of the climate to a doubling of carbon dioxide - which will occur in the next 50 years - means we can expect a temperature increase of at least 4C by 2100.

"Climate sceptics like to criticise climate models for getting things wrong, and we are the first to admit they are not perfect, but what we are finding is that the mistakes are being made by those models which predict less warming, not those that predict more," Professor Sherwood said.

Auckland climate scientist Dr Jim Salinger, author of the new book Living in a Warming World, said the findings were important.

"This is a very significant paper, because it shows the climate sensitivity to doubling carbon dioxide is now significantly higher than formerly believed."

- Jamie Morton


Climate Science Imposters

I feel sorry for the genuine Climate Scientists who get tarred with the same brush as the Climate Change Crusaders who pretend to be scientific as a way to sell their apocalyptic predictions. The article above by Jamie Morton expresses opinions that are unattributed and ones that he is not qualified to give: for example that the Australian study is "a major climate change study" and also that "In New Zealand, four degrees of warming would mean extreme rainfall events would increase by more than 30 per cent~". Both of these claims are unlikely to be true because of the dismal quality of current climate models and the corrupting influence of politics on climate science.

One serious problem with the many climate models selected by the IPCC is that they have been unable to predict the 15 year absence of global warming (see discussion »here«). The models have shown a significant warming trend, but actual temperatures show no significant warming over the 15 year period. This absence of global warming is a serious problem for the IPCC and the others pushing their Global Warming Alarmism (GWA). This could explain their increasingly desperate attempts to scare us with pseudoscience. 

The problem with the Australian study is that it exaggerates the effect of carbon dioxide even more than most of the other climate models. This means that its predictions will be even worse that the IPCC modeled predictions. The existing models have failed to predict recent temperatures and the predictions from the Australian study will deviate even more from reality. Auckland statistician Jim Salinger is wrong to say that climate sensitivity is now significantly higher, based on an unproven theory. He should instead explain why the predictions are so different from the actual temperature records and work towards improving the models.

Why not now?

I wonder if we can bring the increase by 4 degrees forward starting this weekend rather than 2100?

They don't give up!

I am finding the clowns who call themselves "Climate Scientists" are now getting so desperate to keep their manmade Global Warming Fairy Tale going, they are coming out with more and more ridiculous scare mongering claims.

Despite the last few weeks seeing record cold temperatures, record snow falls, record ice in the Antarctic and ice still growing in the Arctic - they come out with "temperatures to rise by up to 8 degrees!".

Now of course the GW fanatics are about to come on here and say the usual like "Denier" and "Facts" and blah, blah, blah.  But here are some facts that they never want to answer to:

Despite CO2 increasing over the last 15 years, the average global temperaure has barely increased at all (this is by the "Climate Scientists" own admission in the latest IPCC report)!

Ice in the Antarctic is now at higher levels than ever recorded before!  This despite the claims of the GW fanatics just 3 or 4 years back that there would hardly be any ice left there by now!  

Only around 10 years or so ago, these same fairy tale believers claimed that 'Children in 2013 won't know what snow is'.  Of course this year and the last few we have seen record snow falls all around the World, incluing in Otago!

Now, just for the amusement of  me and others like me, we now have Ice Breaking ships unable to get through the thick ice that a Research vessel is stuck in, but the GW Fanatics ignore this, and keep going with their Fairy Tale.



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