Waves pound the sea wall at St Clair beach in Dunedin.
Photo ODT files
New Zealand is unprepared for sea level rises of half a
metre by the end of the century that could turn 1-in-100 year
flooding events into annual occurrences, an extensive United
Nations report on climate change has revealed today.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's
much-anticipated climate update found that New Zealand had a
significant "adaptation deficit" in the face of
human-influenced global warming of between 2C and 4C by 2100.
The UN organisation's analysis said the country was already
witnessing climate change in the form of extreme weather
events, and could expect more frequent and more intense
storms and damage to coastal infrastructure and low-lying
ecosystems as a result of rising oceans.
New Zealand scientists described the report as a wake-up call
which should prompt New Zealand to "take its head out of the
The Government welcomed the IPCC's release and said it put
new emphasis on the importance of adapting to climate change.
The report is the work of 309 authors from 70 countries, who
were supported by 436 contributing authors and 1729 experts
and government reviewers. The team has pored over the content
and wording of the final version for five days in Yokohama,
Japan, ahead of its release this afternoon.
The report's authors said in a statement that that the
effects of climate change were "already occurring on all
continents and across the oceans".
"The world, in many cases, is ill-prepared for risks from a
changing climate. The report also concludes that there are
opportunities to respond to such risks, though the risks will
be difficult to manage with high levels of warming."
Victoria University Associate Professor of Geography,
Environment and Earth Sciences James Renwick said the report
painted a very clear picture of what the future could hold
for humanity if it failed to get on top of greenhouse gas
He said one of the biggest issues that New Zealand faced was
sea level rise and its associated hazards.
"Every 10cm of rise triples the risk of a given inundation
event, and we are expecting something like a metre of rise
this century. That would make today's 1-in-100 year event a
weekly occurrence by 2100.
"New Zealand has a great deal of valuable property and
infrastructure close to the coast that will be increasingly
at risk as time goes on."
The report's authors had "high confidence" that New Zealand
would face more frequent and more intense flood damage before
the end of the century
Victoria University Antarctic Centre head Tim Naish, who was
a lead author for the IPCC's previous report, said that new
analysis confirmed and strengthened the certainty around
anthropogenic climate change.
He said extreme weather events would become more frequent as
the wet regions in the west of New Zealand could expect more
rainfall and the dry regions in Canterbury, the Far North and
the East Cape became drier. This would have implications for
water resources and primary industries such as agriculture
and horticulture and could create challenges for
hydro-electric power generation.
Dr Naish said: "This report is a wake up call for New Zealand
to take its head out of the sand, to take a longer-term view
- at least longer than an electoral cycle - and rise to the
challenge of adaptation if we are to future-proof this
country for coming generations."
Climate Change Minister Tim Groser said the report backed the
view that adaptation was as important part of dealing with
climate change that could not be ignored.
"While much of our focus is on getting international
agreement on reducing emissions, some change can't be avoided
so we must be prepared to adapt."
He noted that on top of the risks that this country faced, it
could also benefit from reduced energy demand because of
warmer winters and some regions could observe increases in
spring pasture growth.
The report said planning for sea-level rise in Australia and
New Zealand had evolved considerably over the last two
decades, but its implementation remained "piecemeal".
The IPCC Working Group II's co-chairman Chris Field said
countries and governments were beginning to adapt, but were
mostly reacting to past events and not preparing for a
"Climate-change adaptation is not an exotic agenda that has
never been tried. Governments, firms, and communities around
the world are building experience with adaptation," he said.
"This experience forms a starting point for bolder, more
ambitious adaptations that will be important as climate and
society continue to change."
- Isaac Davison of the New Zealand Herald