National would need to govern alone and get about 51% of the total vote for Mrs Hayes, ranked 64 on the list released yesterday, to enter Parliament.
But on current polling, she would enter Parliament. Labour has made little traction on National in recent polls, although polls usually close up closer to the election.
After electorate MPs have been taken out, Mrs Hayes is ranked the 23rd list MP for National. If two National MPs were to lose their electorates, Mrs Hayes' chances of entering Parliament would be enhanced.
Mr Woodhouse, who is standing in Dunedin North, rises 18 places on the list to 31 for the November 26 election. He is effectively eighth on the list after electorate MPs are taken out of the equation.
Mr Woodhouse is highly thought of for the work he has done in select committees on health issues and has been rewarded for that work with a higher place.
There have been some strong upward movements on the list from cabinet ministers, but this time they are listed in their cabinet order. At the last election, they were Opposition MPs.
Speaker Lockwood Smith, who is just standing on the list this election, is up nine places to three.
Two new "list only" National candidates also assured of election are Jian Yang (36) and Alfred Ngaro (37). Dr Yang is a senior lecturer in political studies, associate Dean of the Faculty of Arts and director of the China Studies Centre for the New Zealand Asia Institute at Auckland University.
Mr Ngaro is a former pastor for the Tamaki Community Church and a youth worker. He is chairman of the Pacific Health Committee of the Auckland District Health Board.
The most notable demotion is former NZ First cabinet minister and now National MP Tau Henare, who went from 26 on the list to 40. Mr Henare put out on Twitter that somebody had to be 40, and this time it was him.
High profile candidate Maggie Barry is expected to easily retain the North Shore electorate being vacated by Defence Minister Wayne Mapp.
National Party president Peter Goodfellow said the list included a balanced blend of enthusiastic talent alongside experienced and tested community leaders.
Priority was given to maintaining strong, stable and effective leadership, with sitting cabinet ministers and ministers outside cabinet retaining the top 21 places.
The list is (with 2008 rankings in brackets): 1 John Key (1), 2 Bill English (2), 3 Lockwood Smith (12), 4 Gerry Brownlee (3), 5 Tony Ryall (6), 6 Nick Smith (5), 7 Judith Collins (7), 8 Anne Tolley (10), 9 Chris Finlayson (14), 10 David Carter (9), 11 Murray McCully (11), 12 Tim Groser (15), 13 Steven Joyce (16), 14 Paula Bennett (41), 15 Phil Heatley (22), 16 Jonathan Coleman (29), 17 Kate Wilkinson (30), 18 Hekia Parata (36), 19 Maurice Williamson (8), 20 Nathan Guy (18), 21 Craig Foss (33), 22 Chris Tremain (31), 23 Jo Goodhew (39), 24 Lindsay Tisch (19), 25 Eric Roy (28), 26 Paul Hutchison (23), 27 Shane Ardern (24), 28 Amy Adams (52), 29 Peseta Sam Lotu-Iiga (35), 30 Simon Bridges (51), 31 Michael Woodhouse (49), 32 Chester Borrows (32), 33 Nikki Kaye (57), 34 Melissa Lee (37), 35 Kanwaljit Bakshi (38), 36 Jian Yang (-), 37 Alfred Ngaro (-), 38 Katrina Shanks (46), 39 Paul Goldsmith (-), 40 Tau Henare (26), 41 Jacqui Dean (40), 42 Nicky Wagner (43), 43 Chris Auchinvole (42), 44 Louise Upston (53), 45 Jonathan Young (66), 46 Jackie Blue (45), 47 Todd McClay (54), 48 Alan Peachey (34), 49 David Bennett (44), 50 Tim Macindoe (55), 51 Cam Calder (58), 52 John Hayes (50), 53 Colin King (47), 54 Aaron Gilmore (56), 55 Jami-Lee Ross (-), 56 Paul Quinn (48), 57 Paul Foster-Bell (-), 58 Maggie Barry (-), 59 Ian McKelvie (-), 60 Mark Mitchell (-), 61 Mike Sabin (-), 62 Scott Simpson (-), 63 Claudette Hauiti (-), 64 Joanne Hayes (-), 65 Leonie Hapeta (-), 66 Sam Collins (-), 67 Jonathan Fletcher (-), 68 Heather Tanner (-), 69 Denise Krum (-), 70 Carolyn O'Fallon (-), 71 Viv Gurrey (71), 72 Karen Rolleston (-), 73 Brett Hudson (-), 74 Linda Cooper (-), 75 Karl Varley (-).
Southern candidates
• Bill English - (Clutha-Southland) 2
• Jo Goodhew - (Rangitata) 23
• Eric Roy - (Invercargill) 25
• Michael Woodhouse - (list) 31
• Jacqui Dean - (Waitaki) 41
• Joanne Hayes - (new candidate) 64
