English's Budget credit-rating bid succeeds

Finance Minister Bill English achieved something that seemed almost impossible a month or so ago in having the country's credit ratings maintained near the top of the range.

That means, with the country's borrowing costs kept stable, both the Government and households with mortgages or other bank debt can breathe slightly easier.

A credit rating downgrade, as threatened this week by Standard and Poor's, would have seen the Government's interest payments rise by $600 million annually and mortgage interest rates by 1.5%.

The Budget, released yesterday, was never going to be about the detail of offerings for next year or the year after.

Instead its major mission was to convince the rating agencies that New Zealand deserved to maintain its current world standing.

Mission accomplished.

Bank of New Zealand markets economist Stephen Toplis told the Otago Daily Times the Government had presented a Budget that largely achieved the goal of showing a return to lower debt levels over time.

"By and large, the assumptions behind its forecasts are believable and its policy response to the current miserable environment is appropriate."

The key was the fact that the Government's net debt position was constrained below 40% of GDP right through the forecast period to 2013.

Even under Treasury's down-side scenario, it stayed below 50%, compared with the United Kingdom, the United States and Europe, where 70% and rising was already normal, he said.

Financial market reaction was mixed, with short-term interest rates and the dollar falling to help people borrowing and exporters selling overseas.

However, the NZX-50 fell nearly 46 points.

Treasury seemed to take a more realistic view of the world in this Budget.

Having been under fire in recent months for understating the depth of the recession, Treasury has this time found favour with private sector economists.

Treasury forecast the recession to extend to the end of September, with a "very modest" recovery from the end of the year.

GDP growth of -1.7% for the March 2010 year was forecast and 1.8% was forecast for March 2011.

Polson Higgs partner Michael Turner said the Budget did not contain too many surprises and therefore was unlikely to unsettle people and the markets.

"It was also fairly conservative and fiscally responsible, which is what we expected.

"Debt levels were clearly a key focus of the Budget, with many of the decisions reflecting the Government's desire not to unnecessarily increase Government debt and to over time bring this back under control.

"As one of my staff members said: the Government's Budget was similar to his personal budget, looking to cut unnecessary expenditure and reduce debt.A prudent approach in the current environment."

While one of the Budget themes involved lifting productivity, improving competitiveness and sharpening New Zealand's future economic performance, there was little substance to achieving this ideal, he said.

That could be just the reality of delivering a Budget when finances were tight.

Mr Turner was also surprised at the suggested levels of government spending in future Budgets.

In particular, Mr English signalled that new spending allowances in future years would only grow at 2%.

"Given 2011 will be an election year, it will be interesting to see if the Government can keep this promise coming up to a general election. This would certainly demonstrate fiscal restraint," he said.

The mid-term spending forecasts in the Budget show that unless the economy improves soon the 2011 election year Budget could be one of the grimmest ever.

Mr English's Budget has allowed for spending increases until 2010 and then the big spending portfolios flat line from there.

Health spending in the Budget is forecast to increase from $11.2 billion in 2008 to $13.4 billion in 2010, and then drop slightly in each of the following years.

It is a similar story in education, which rises from $9.5 billion in 2008 to $11.3 billion in 2010 and then virtually flat lines from there.

Mr English has allowed for a $1.4 billion increase in spending in 2011 and additional $1.1 billion increases in the following years.

In these harsh economic times Mr English will have to use that money to fund any cost pressures across the entire government, as well as any other initiatives a National-led Government might want to undertake.

There are also numbers that show just how harsh the next few years could get.

Finance costs are forecast to rise $2.4 billion in 2008 to $4.3 billion in 2013.

Social welfare expenses are forecast to go from $17.8 billion in 2008 to $22 billion in 2011 and $23.5 billion in 2013.

The operating balance is forecast to be a $9.3 billion deficit this year, a $5.7 billion deficit next year, a $7.1 billion deficit in 2011, the same in 2012 and a $5.8 billion deficit in 2013.

The bond tender programme has increased to $8.5 billion for 2010, rising to $15 billion from 2012.

The Debt Management Office intends to offer around $150 million to $200 million in bonds per week through a combination of regular weekly tenders and occasional tap tenders.

It will also reintroduce one-year treasury bills depending on market demand and cost effectiveness.