Climate Change Minister Nick Smith
Attempting to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 40 percent
by 2020 would cause too much economic hardship, Climate Change
Minister Nick Smith said today.
The signal from Dr Smith came as he also reported that new
data showed New Zealand had sufficient forests to offset
increases in emissions since 1990 to meet Kyoto Protocol
obligations.
Estimates of New Zealand's Kyoto liability have bounced
around wildly from profits to multi-billion dollar payments
due to different calculations.
The new satellite images show that New Zealand has enough
trees to meets its current obligations.
Appearing on TVNZ's Q&A programme today, Dr Smith had his
eye on what will happen when the Kyoto agreement expires and
a new deal comes into place after 2012.
Dr Smith said while decisions were yet to be made, targets of
around 40 percent by 2020 in comparison to 1990 were neither
achievable nor affordable.
Asked if a 40 percent reduction would have too great an
economic impact, Dr Smith said it would.
Today Dr Smith released an economic analysis that predicted
economic costs of $600, $1000, $1400 and $3000 per capita per
year for 2020 emissions targets relative to 1990 levels of
plus 15 percent, 0 percent, minus 15 percent and minus 40
percent.
A minus 40 percent target is being promoted by Greenpeace,
but Dr Smith said this would cost $15 billion a year by 2020
and even the current emissions trading scheme (ETS) in
legislation would push up power prices by 10 percent and
petrol by six cents a litre.
The Government says it will set a target before an
international meeting of climate change negotiations on
August 10.
National campaigned on a 50 percent cut by 2050, which would
equate to about 15 percent by 2020.
Dr Smith said he hoped new legislation amending the ETS would
be "sealed" before countries met in Copenhagen to discuss
climate change policy.
Labour's climate change spokesman Charles Chauvel said it was
better to be bold than to be timid when setting the carbon
pollution reduction target.
"Any economist will tell you that it's hard to predict what
costs will be in 11 years' time, so I take the institute's
[NZ Economic Institute of Research] numbers with several
grains of salt," Mr Chauvel said.
"What is certain is that, with our carbon pollution emissions
rising rapidly, and with other countries committing to
action, New Zealand can't afford to look complacent by
failing to set a serious reduction target."
Dr Smith said New Zealand did have to do its part in dealing
with the "biggest environmental challenge of our generation",
but targets and policy had to be realistic and achievable.
He also today released a land use analysis report which used
satellite images to calculate forest cover.
Under the Kyoto agreement forests planted since 1990 offset
increases in emissions since then.
There had been concerns that fewer trees and higher emissions
would leave New Zealand with a billion dollar Kyoto
liability.
Dr Smith said the report was good news.
"The Government has been cautious over New Zealand's Kyoto
balance and future targets because of the billion dollar plus
variations each year in the estimate of forest areas.
"The satellite data is good news in that it accurately
confirms the area of post-1989 forests is sufficient to
offset New Zealand's increase in emissions and meet our Kyoto
obligations in the first commitment period from 2008 to
2012."
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