Attending a Eurogroup meeting at the European Union council
headquarters in Brussels are (from left) Greece's Finance
Minister Evangelos Venizelos, Greece's Prime Minister Lucas
Papademos and Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang
Schaeuble. REUTERS/Yves Herman
Eurozone finance ministers have approved a second bailout
for debt-laden Greece that will resolve Athens' immediate
repayment needs but seems unlikely to revive the nation's
shattered economy.
After a marathon 12 hours of talks through the night, euro
zone officials said ministers had agreed measures to cut
Greece's debt to around 121 percent of gross domestic product
by 2020, close to their original target of 120, after
negotiators for private bondholders offered to accept a
bigger loss to help plug the funding gap.
Agreement on a 130-billion-euro rescue package with strict
conditions attached will help draw a line under months of
uncertainty that has shaken the currency bloc, and avert an
imminent bankruptcy.
"The financial volume (of the Greek package) is 130 billion
euros and debt-to-GDP (will be) 121 percent. Now it's down to
work on the statement," one official involved in the
negotiations told Reuters. Another confirmed the two figures.
The euro jumped almost half a cent, reversing earlier losses,
after Reuters reported a deal had been struck.
A report prepared for ministers by EU, European Central Bank
and IMF experts, obtained exclusively by Reuters, said Greece
would need extra relief to cut its debts near to the official
debt target 2020 given the ever-worsening state of its
economy.
If Athens did not follow through on economic reforms and
savings, its debt could hit 160 percent by that date.
"Given the risks, the Greek program may thus remain
accident-prone, with questions about sustainability hanging
over it," the 9-page confidential report said, highlighting
the fact that Greece's problems are far from over.
The accord will enable Greece to launch a bond swap with
private investors to help reduce and restructure Athens' vast
debts, put it on a more stable financial footing and keep it
inside the 17-country euro zone.
Greece will have around 100 billion euros of debt written off
as banks and insurers will swap bonds they hold for
longer-dated securities that pay a lower coupon.
Private sector holders of Greek debt are expected to take
losses of 53.5 percent or more on the nominal value of their
bonds as part of a debt exchange that will reduce Greece's
debts by around 100 billion euros.
Previously they had agreed to take a 50 percent nominal
writedown, which equated to around a 70 percent loss on the
net present value of the bonds.
The debt sustainability report delivered to ministers last
week showed that without further measures Greek debt would
only fall to 129 percent by 2020.
The IMF had said if the ratio was not cut to near 120
percent, it may not have been able to help finance the
bailout.
Diplomats and economists say the deal may only delay a deeper
default by a few months. A turnaround could take as much as a
decade, a prospect that brought thousands of Greeks onto the
streets to protest against austerity measures on Sunday.
Sceptics question whether a new Greek government will stick
to the deeply unpopular programme after elections due in
April, and believe Athens could again fall behind in
implementation, prompting exasperated lenders to pull the
plug once the euro zone has stronger financial firewalls in
place.
While there are doubts in Germany and other countries that
Greece will be able to meet its commitments, including
implementing 3.3 billion euros of spending cuts and tax
increases, the threat of contagion from a chaotic Greek
default always made a deal more likely than not, no matter
how tortuous the negotiations.
Greek Prime Minister Lucas Papademos, International Monetary
Fund Managing Director Christine Lagarde and ECB President
Mario Draghi all attended the Brussels talks in a sign they
were likely to be decisive.
The private creditor bond exchange is expected to launch on
March 8 and complete three days later, Athens said on
Saturday. That means a 14.5-billion-euro bond repayment due
on March 20 would be restructured, allowing Greece to avoid
default.
The vast majority of the funds in the 130-billion-euro
programme will be used to finance the bond swap and ensure
Greece's banking system remains stable: 30 billion euros will
go to "sweeteners" to get the private sector to sign up to
the swap, 23 billion will go to recapitalise Greek banks.
A further 35 billion will allow Greece to finance the buying
back of the bonds, and 5.7 billion will go to paying off the
interest accrued on the bonds being traded in. Next to
nothing will go directly to help the Greek economy.
Those numbers could change in the final analysis given the
scramble to meet the overall objective of reducing Greece's
debts from 160 percent of GDP to around 120 by 2020.
Earlier, euro zone sources said national central banks in the
currency bloc could restructure Greek bonds held in their
investment portfolios in the same way as private investors,
cutting Athens' debt by 3.5 percentage points.
If the ECB were to forego profits on its Greek holdings, that
would raise another 5.5 percentage points of GDP, the report
showed.
The deal will provide immediate relief to Athens and
financial markets but no one is pretending it will end
Greece's problems. Figures last week showed its economy
shrank 7 percent year-on-year in the last quarter of 2011,
much more than expected, with further cuts likely to make
matters worse.
The troika of European Commission, ECB and IMF, responsible
for monitoring Greece's reform progress, carries out
quarterly reviews and could decide Athens is not meeting its
commitments at any one of them.
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