Brazil's Northeast is suffering its worst drought in decades,
threatening hydro-power supplies in an area prone to
blackouts and potentially slowing economic growth in one of
the country's emerging agricultural frontiers.
Lack of rain has hurt corn and cotton crops, left cattle and
goats to starve to death in dry pastures and wiped some 30
percent off sugar cane production in the region responsible
for 10 percent of Brazil's cane output.
Thousands of subsistence farmers have seen their livelihoods
wither away in recent months as animal carcasses lie
abandoned in some areas that have seen almost no rain in two
years.
"We are experiencing the worst drought in 50 years, with
consequences that could be compared to a violent earthquake,"
Eduardo Salles, agriculture secretary in the northeastern
state of Bahia, said in an emailed statement.
Dams in the Northeast ended December at just 32 percent of
capacity, according to the national electrical grid operator.
That puts them below the 34 percent the operator, known as
ONS, considers sufficient to guarantee electricity supplies.
As reservoir levels fell, state-controlled Petrobras imported
nearly four times more liquefied natural gas (LNG) in the
first nine months of 2012, a back-up for hydro-power
generation that has hurt the firm's profits.
Brazil's reliance on hydro-power to generate electricity has
fallen to 67 percent of all electricity generated from about
75 percent five years ago, according to the government-run
energy research group EPE.
But the low water levels have still set off alarm bells in a
country with a history of energy shortages that crimped
economic growth as recently as a decade ago.
President Dilma Rousseff dismissed talk of an energy crisis
on Dec. 27, calling the idea of Brazil potentially needing to
ration energy "ridiculous."
However, there have been some signs of strain already. In
October, the Northeast experienced its worst blackout in more
than a decade, knocking Bahia state's important petrochemical
industry offline.
A spokesperson at Brazil's agriculture ministry said the
federal government has not calculated the financial cost or
the loss to crops expected from the drought. However, the
ministry is trying to mitigate the economic impact by making
additional lines of credit available to small farmers, the
official said.
Crop supply agency Conab is also sending corn to the region
in hopes of saving livestock.
Bahia state officials, however, said the measures were not
enough and on Dec. 30 asked for more federal resources to
help some 20 million people living in the semi-arid tropical
region stretching north from Minas Gerais state.
"The last comparable drought in the region was in the early
1980s ... even if rains come in the next few days it's not
going to make a difference for some areas," Celso Oliveira, a
meteorologist with Sao Paulo-based Somar, told Reuters.
The states that have received the least rainfall are Bahia,
Brazil's fourth most populous state, Pernambuco, whose
capital Recife is one of 12 host cities for the 2014 soccer
world cup and an important port, and Piauí, Oliveira said.
Even with likely crop losses in the Northeast, Brazil still
expects an overall record soybean and strong corn harvest
this season thanks to sufficient rainfall over the main
center-west and southern producing areas.
The government's Conab agency says Bahia should produce 3.76
million tonnes of soybeans this season, out of the 82.6
million tonnes it expects from Brazil's overall crop.
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