The author behind a new study linking 30-year drought in
Western Australia with heavy snowfall in Antarctica says it is
strong evidence man-made greenhouse gases have provoked
dramatic climate change.
The Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Co-operative Research
Centre in Tasmania said it had found a direct link between
snowfall in eastern Antarctica and rainfall in Australia's
southwest.
The heavier it snows in Antarctica, the less it rains in
southern WA, the centre found.
Principal research scientist Tas van Ommen said the
conclusion had been drawn from a study of 750-year-old
ice-core samples.
The samples showed that as recently as about 1970, Southern
Ocean winds had changed to deposit unusually heavy snow in
Antarctica while circulating dry, cold wind - with little
rainfall - to the southwest of Australia.
Dr van Ommen said it was the most significant climatic change
found in the 750-year-old ice sample, and outside natural
variation.
"What we've found is that the last 30 years in our ice core
is the largest event in the past 750 years," Dr van Ommen
told AAP ahead of the study's release on Monday.
"Large-scale atmospheric circulation in recent decades seems
to have stepped up in a way that brings extra warm, moist air
to Antarctica - with extra snowfall - and at the same time
the recirculation of cold, dry air up towards Western
Australia.
"This has actually reduced the winter rainfall and made a
significant contribution to the drought.
"The drop occurred around 1970 - it's about a 15% drop in
(annual) winter rainfall." Dr van Ommen said that while the
ice-core study wasn't conclusive proof of human-induced
climate change, there was strong evidence pointing to it.
"There's no doubt in everybody's mind that Western Australia
has gone into drought," he said.
"We're seeing a step (step) change in drying from the 1970s
onwards.
"The (earth's) atmosphere tends to have a bit of structure in
it that has permanent high-pressure and low-pressure systems
based around the Southern Ocean.
"This pattern has strengthened in the past 30 years and some
of the computer models that reproduce this are showing that
it looks like it has happened because of greenhouse gases -
carbon dioxide - and also ozone (being depleted).
"We wouldn't claim on the strength of this that it is proven
in black and white, but it's another piece of evidence.
"This is strong evidence that human climate change does make
a contribution to the West Australian drought."
Dr van Ommen said that while the earth had experienced
dramatic climate changes in its history, studies had shown
there had been "much more dramatic changes" in recent years.
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