Gillard takes Rudd's measure and triumphs

After a dramatic day in federal Labor politics, two things are now clear. One is that Kevin Rudd didn't have the numbers to become prime minister.

After the February 2012 leadership ballot, Rudd said he wouldn't challenge again - unless he was drafted by an overwhelming majority of the Labor party and the position was vacant.

The second is Julia Gillard believes she has Tony Abbott's measure - despite consistent opinion polls and internal party research pointing to the contrary.

The question now is - is the Labor leadership stable?

Will Labor's polling worsen to the point caucus goes begging to Rudd mid-year, perhaps in the final week of parliament before the winter break and the federal election campaign which starts in August?

Rudd would not be breaking his word in that case, if Labor felt it must harness his immense public popularity to get it over the line in September.

Gillard insisted on Thursday the leadership "business" was ended.

But there will be ongoing concerns about her government's focus, underneath a lingering cloud of voter distrust in the prime minister.

Simon Crean - who was sacked by Gillard on Thursday after demanding a caucus ballot and telling her he was backing Rudd - highlighted these worries.

And former Hawke-Keating government minister was clearly disappointed Rudd didn't grab the opportunity he had created for the former prime minister.

"It meant me putting my differences aside with Kevin," he said.

"He should have run, there's no question about that.

"That in itself would have been an important cleansing for the party."

Perhaps so, but Gillard prevailed.

The self described "feisty woman" again cemented her leadership.

And Rudd lives on - with clean hands - to fight another day.

For others, the retribution was swift.

Crean was stripped of his ministries and parliamentary secretary Richard Marles fell on his sword.

Open Rudd backer and chief government whip Joel Fitzgibbon also is gone, together with deputy whips Ed Husic and Janelle Saffin.

And while Gillard believes voters will reject Abbott's "relentless negativity" and embrace Labor's plans for the future, the trust deficit is a tough nut to crack.

Gillard will need to do two things if she is to move on from the tumult and heal the party.

First, find a way of incorporating Crean's wisdom into a new narrative for her Labor government and battered ALP state branches across the country.

And, second, integrate Rudd in a more constructive way into the Labor campaign.

One way or another, his popularity could still drag the government from the brink of political oblivion.