Romancing the Maori Party

Tomorrow morning when John Key's new Cabinet is sworn in, the Government will be formally in place, and with the Maori Party support deal sown up over the weekend, the stage is set for the next three years.

The latter arrangement will have been achieved with some relief on the part of the Government because on Saturday, with the release of the official election results following the special votes count, it had lost one seat, picked up by the Green Party.

That reduced its majority from 62 to 61 in a 121-seat House and acquiring the additional three Maori seats on confidence and supply will come as a welcome cushion on which to ride out unpredictable political reversals.

And in a term that is expected to provide a number of tempestuous economic challenges - along with the normal turbulence that can buffet any government - this will be doubly welcome.

For its part, the Maori Party has evidently thought hard about mooring its waka against National's wharf - again. It lost two seats and a substantial portion of its popularity among Maori voters this election; and, with co-leaders Tariana Turia and Pita Sharples having both signalled this term in Parliament was likely to be their last, the issue of succession and, indeed, long-term survival, will have caused soul searching.

The experience of minor parties in government under MMP has been that the closer they become to the major governing partner, the greater their loss of independent identity and voter appeal.

This trend may be exacerbated by the loss in 2014 of the party's charismatic co-leaders and the fact that a substantial portion of the grassroots still identifies strongly with Labour.

This time round the support deal gives the Maori Party considerable leeway: while it will guarantee supply and confidence, it will remain free to vote how it chooses on less palatable legislation - such as the controversial partial asset sales.

For this legislation and other mooted elements of National's "Action Plan", which the Maori Party might find contentious, Mr Key will rely on the two dependable votes of Act New Zealand's John Banks and United Future's Peter Dunne.

In return for their support, National - which has one eye on potential support partners in 2014 - has rewarded Mrs Turia and Dr Sharples with ministerial positions and a number of initiatives to address Maori social issues.

Mrs Turia has retained her roles as Whanau Ora minister and disability issues as well as associate minister of health, but also gains a new role as associate minister of housing. Dr Sharples retains the Maori Affairs portfolio and keeps associate roles in corrections and education.

But perhaps the flagship addition to the 2011-14 agreement is the creation of a ministerial committee on poverty. Headed by Finance Minister Bill English with Mrs Turia as his deputy, this would be designed to "bring a greater focus to and improve co-ordination of government activity aimed at alleviating the effects of poverty in New Zealand".

It is as yet unclear exactly how this would work in practice beyond, as Mrs Turia puts it, holding "the agencies accountable for the work programme that they've got". For the Government has an ongoing commitment to cuts in the public sector, many of which initiatives might ordinarily be charged with developing and delivering poverty alleviation.

In this light it is difficult to see how this new committee will dovetail with the now explicit Government concern over low-income New Zealanders "disproportionately hit" by the global financial crisis.

There does not appear to be any suggestion, for example, to establish legislation that would measure other intended legislation against its potential to exacerbate poverty. That would be a radical strategy indeed.

Still, good intentions are better than no intentions at all, and the initiative will be closely watched - not least by the Maori Party's grassroots movement.

It will want to be convinced that beyond the evident mana that comes with a seat at the top table of government there are real gains being made; and their people's shocking incarceration, education and employment statistics will enjoy some measurable improvement over the next three years. If they do not, many Maori in 2014 might be inclined to ask, "what's the point?".

 

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