National safe on asset sales

The Government has wasted no time in reminding the opposition of its status in the new order of things. First there was the abrupt - bordering on contemptuous - dismissal of Labour leader David Shearer's proposal that Prime Minister John Key extend the promised committee on poverty to Labour's caucus, making it a genuine cross-party affair. If the Labour Party wished to give National confidence and supply, it would happily take its candidates on board, Mr Key quipped.

Then, less than two days after having been sworn in as the new Government, State Owned Enterprises Minister Tony Ryall and Finance Minister Bill English announced State energy generator Mighty River Power would be the first entity to be sold off under its "mixed ownership" programme. Such gambits are neither as stark nor economical as former Labour finance minister Michael Cullen's one-time parliamentary injunction - "we won, they lost, let's do lunch" - but its import is practically identical.

If Mr Shearer thought he was likely to get anything other than a crushing rejection to his suggestion on poverty, then he is more naive than anyone might have imagined. Rather, his intention, given that "poverty" is traditionally Labour's own territory, was more likely an attempt to reinforce this in the minds of the public by appealing to it over the Prime Minister's head. Whether in doing so he scored any points is doubtful.

Likewise, while there are good reasons of process for the Government to set in train the partial asset sales programme so rapidly, being quick out of the blocks on the most contentious element of its election platform is also steely politics. In others realms it is called "coming out fighting".

It serves to remind the Labour opposition that while the policy was apparently unpopular with, according to various polls, between 60% and 70% of the public, and while Labour threw everything at it, it could not land a significant blow. National won 47% of the vote, Labour 27%: that, when all is said and done, is a mandate.

Even when the votes of the smaller parties are added up, National has the support to carry the day. Carrying the day means shares in Mighty River Power are likely to be available to the public towards the end of 2012. This will be the first step in the Government's larger programme which entails selling 49% stakes in the four state energy companies, which also include generators Meridian, Genesis, Solid Energy - and selling down the Government's stake in Air New Zealand from 74% to 51%.

Its launch of this initial public offering (IPO) contains a number of provisos: the Government will retain a 51% share-holding, foreign ownership is not likely to exceed about 15% and New Zealand investors will be in the front of the queue for share allocations when the offering is floated.

The mechanisms by which this will occur are to be revealed in the first quarter of 2012, but there are already suggestion of quotas available for "mum and dad" investors along with sweeteners and bonuses to persuade them to hold on to their shares. Past experience has seen such small investors sell out to institutional and offshore interests offering inflated prices, and while the Government is unable to rule this out, it says there will be a 10% cap on ownership by anyone other than the State.

The Government hopes to realise between $5 billion and $7 billion from the sales programme with which to pay down debt. It argues, rightly, it will also give New Zealand investors and institutions a significant additional portfolio of investment possibilities, and help to wean the same off their unproductive love affair with property. Already there are signs of ill-discipline within Labour in its response to the announcement. SOEs spokesman Clayton Cosgrove says "Labour is prepared to fight tooth and nail to stop National's state-asset fire sale".

No-one appears to have told Shane Jones, slated for a high position on the front bench. On Thursday he conceded the party does not have the numbers to overturn the decision and "needs to learn to count in terms of the election outcome". Further, that he would not be getting "too precious" if iwi wanted to "be part of this action". National has this one in the bag.

 

 

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