Cold War or Big Chill?

Opinion is divided over whether Russia's latest actions signal military posturing, the start of a new Cold War, or are routine.

It is understandable why some people are uneasy. Russia's annexation of Crimea has inspired conflict in the already unsettled Ukraine between pro-Western Ukrainian Government forces and pro-Russian separatists.

The hostility has claimed more than 4000 lives in six months of fighting, according to the United Nations.

And while there was already widespread condemnation of Russia's role in the violence, the situation was brought to a head with the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 over Ukraine in July.

It is widely believed to have been shot down by pro-Russian rebels with a surface-to-air missile supplied by Moscow (although it denied direct involvement).

The crash claimed the lives of the 298 passengers and crew including Australians and New Zealanders.

In past months there has been myriad ''crisis'' talks, international ultimatums, sanctions, asset freezes and travel bans by the West, and the world has watched a series of incursions and retreats by Russian President Vladimir Putin's forces.

A September 5 ceasefire between Ukraine and pro-Russian rebels is largely holding, but sporadic shelling leaves the constant fear it will collapse.

The United Nations Security Council yesterday held an emergency session to discuss this week's Nato-reported sightings of Russian troops, tanks and military equipment moving into eastern Ukraine.

Nato also believes Russia is deploying nuclear-capable weapons to Crimea.

Russia announced this week its air force will patrol the Arctic Ocean to the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico.

It reportedly also plans to file a claim with the United Nations to annex 800,000sq km of new oil-rich Arctic territory, and intends to open old Soviet-era military bases in the Arctic - and build new ones.

Also this week, Australia said it was monitoring a fleet of Russian warships heading towards the country ahead of the G20 world leaders meeting in Brisbane this weekend.

Tensions between the two countries over the MH17 crash came to the fore at the Apec summit in Beijing, where Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott reportedly had a testy meeting with Mr Putin.

The various actions have unleashed a tsunami of political rhetoric, news headlines and commentary about the beginnings of a new ''Cold War''. The latest come from British Prime Minister David Cameron and former Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev -

albeit with different perspectives of where fault lies.

Mr Putin, in a speech last month, was adamant ''the Cold War is over'', although he was clear ''it did not end with peace'' and lambasted the United States for abusing its power and influence in the world and stirring conflict.

Mr Gorbachev, a supporter of the West who was instrumental in ending the Cold War, pulled no punches in criticising the West's actions in the former Yugoslavia, Iraq, Libya and Syria, the United Nations Security Council's inaction, and Europe's lack of leadership for contributing to instability in the world. There is some truth to their comments.

The US and its allies have uncomfortable legacies from wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and the United Nations has failed to stem bloodshed in Syria (but it must be noted permanent Security Council members Russia and China vetoed any action against the Assad regime, for example).

Mr Putin's aggression in the Ukraine and Crimea is unwarranted and it is to be hoped renewed international pressure will result in another pullout, as happened previously. The death toll is a tragedy, and any regional conflict has the potential to draw in neighbours.

Russia's denials over the likely cause of the Flight MH17 downing are offensive given the international ramifications and sending warships to Australia in the wake of that equally so - although Russia has produced the same show of strength at previous global meetings.

But there can be little gained for Russia by inviting real conflict with the West given the might of the US and the European Union, and increasing relationships between China and the West.

While relationships between Russia and the West may be frosty, it is hopefully more of a Big Chill which can be thawed via ongoing diplomatic efforts, rather than through another Cold War.

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