'Having a go' and our economy

Joe Hockey
Joe Hockey
Australian Federal Treasurer Joe Hockey released his Budget 2015 this week with a call that many people will see as the epitome of the transtasman cultures - encouraging people to ''have a go''.

Just as Finance Minister Bill English has a soft spot for small to medium-sized enterprises which employ most of the people in New Zealand, Mr Hockey has this year realised he too must tap into the sweet spot of small-business support to ensure political survival.

The Budget is being labelled an ''election Budget'', even though the next Australian federal vote is not scheduled until next year.

Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott nearly lost his job after the Government slipped in the polls after a disastrous reaction to the 2014 Budget.

Mr Abbott's personal popularity as prime minister fell off a cliff.

Last year's Australian Budget, designed to deal with plummeting mineral prices, domestic terrorism and drought in Australia's north, was so tough as to be widely seen - and criticised - as unfair.

This year, Mr Hockey is trying to reconnect with disillusioned Australians. His Budget is designed to undo last year's electoral damage, and to shift the country's economy from one with an overdependence on mining and commodities to one which recognises the role of small business.

All small businesses will be encouraged to engage in stimulus spending.

They can immediately claim tax deductions on every single work-related item they buy up to $A20,000 ($NZ21,600).

Mr Hockey forecast a $A31.1 billion deficit for next year, with net debt estimated at $A286 billion.

He says the Government still has work to do and the Budget, although not the end of the process, is a step in the right direction.

The Australian economy has reached a low point, with the Reserve Bank of Australia using cuts in its official lending rate to help boost spending and allow people to reduce debt.

Coupled with the signalled tax deductions for small business, it appears the ''lucky country'' is betting on a domestic-led recovery - something about which New Zealand knows plenty.

Mr Hockey is dealing with some large numbers, and some depressing ones for people trying to find work. Unemployment is forecast to remain at 6% for the foreseeable future and employment growth is going to improve 2% a year, at best.

Tax cuts have been ruled out, but additional childcare spending will be used to encourage women back into jobs (even if those jobs may be non-existent).

In New Zealand, Mr English will release his Budget 2015 in a week. By now, it is common knowledge the Government's prized surplus may never happen; certainly not this year and probably not next.

Mr Hockey optimistically predicts the Australian books will return to black in 2020, something he is unlikely to oversee given it is two electoral cycles away.

Mr English will have wanted to return New Zealand to surplus after seven years as finance minister. Speculation is still rife that in the middle of next year the-now list MP may call time on his parliamentary career if an overseas job offer looms.

During his time in charge of the books, Mr English has seen dairy prices soar, along with house prices and reconstruction activity in Christchurch.

Labour was accused of negativity when it said last year the New Zealand economy was built on dairy and disaster.

But was it? Dairy prices have now slumped, the Reserve Bank is taking measures to cool the Auckland property market and it is also picking the slowing of the Christchurch rebuild will cool economic growth.

Messrs Hockey and English both realise public spending must be kept at a reasonable level to encourage growth, but trimmed to help balance the books.

If the small-business incentives included in Mr Hockey's Budget do encourage Australians to have a go and hire more people, it may take some heat off the Auckland housing market by encouraging Australians - and transplanted New Zealanders - to stay there and work.

However, Mr English should not rely on the changes making any immediate difference. He needs to find his own solutions to prevent this country's economic growth slipping.

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