Tourism: Ensuring everyone wins

The gist of the comments coming from the Trenz tourism conference in Rotorua, which ends today, seems to be that a projected surge in tourists visiting New Zealand in the next few years will be a licence to print money.

The projections include those from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment, which show international visitor numbers are expected to increase from 2.9 million in the year which ended in March, to 3.8 million in 2021.

This is on track with the Tourism Industry Association's plan to almost double tourism by 2025.

With the increase in numbers comes an increase in spending - predicted by the ministry to be up 48% to $11.1 billion by 2021.

The numbers are expected to help fuel a 46% increase in tourism jobs in Otago in the next 10 years; the province is second to Auckland in expected job growth. Nationally, some 36,000 full-time equivalent workers are expected to be needed.

Top of the list will be accommodation managers, hospitality workers and chefs.

More waiters, baristas and taxi drivers will also be required, and - as the Chinese are set to overtake Australians as our largest international visitor demographic in six years' time - people with cultural and language skills will also be in demand.

Tourism has for some time been our second-largest export earner behind dairying.

Domestic and international tourism is worth almost $24 billion to the national economy, and comprises about 9% of the country's gross domestic product and jobs nationwide.

It seems extraordinary that, according to the projections, tourism is likely to overtake dairying as our leading export earner within the next year.

For tourism operators therefore, the market is undoubtedly ripe for the picking and the excitement understandable.

And Otago is well-placed to take a sizeable chunk of the visitor spending.

Tourism Industry Association figures from the end of last year show more than a quarter of Otago's gross domestic product already comes from international and domestic tourism - a higher proportion than any other region in the country - and is worth $2.17 billion to the local economy.

That can only be expected to increase, particularly as the ministry's information showed Chinese tourists were travelling more to regional New Zealand and undertaking a wider range of activities.

However, amid the hype around the benefits, there will need to be careful planning and investment to ensure there is real value for all; that the visitor experience is everything it is billed to be, but that it does not come at a cost to locals.

There are likely to be considerable challenges in finding the right balance.

Locally, visitor accommodation is already an issue, with Dunedin and Queenstown often at capacity during peak season or large events.

The availability and affordability of residential accommodation is a significant issue in and around Queenstown.

If more workers are required, that will only exacerbate that issue and bring more conflicts of land availability and land use.

Queenstown district ratepayers already have the burden of paying for infrastructure for a large transient population.

Substantial increases are not likely to be welcomed.

There are ongoing challenges in ensuring that our ''clean green'' image and ''100% pure'' branding matches the experience for visitors, and recent history shows the difficulty of tackling the likes of our deteriorating water quality given the conflicting land-use issues.

If we are expecting hundreds of thousands more visitors, how will our transport infrastructure cope?

Auckland roads are already gridlocked, Southern roads are fraught with difficulties for foreign drivers, and there are already a high proportion of crashes involving tourist drivers in the South because of that. Will new tourism transport proposals lead to more of the community angst and division which we have witnessed recently?

With increased international exposure, our tourism sector must ensure it is up to the task in terms of health and safety.

While there have been legislative changes in the wake of several high-profile tourism-related deaths, such tragedies can have a huge impact on our international reputation.

The problems are by no means insurmountable, but they must be addressed, lest the potential growing pains outweigh the projected gains.

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