Resolution difficult to achieve

A war plane crashing in flames in a mountainous area in northern Syria after it was shot down by...
A war plane crashing in flames in a mountainous area in northern Syria after it was shot down by Turkish fighter jets near the Turkish-Syrian border, is seen in this still image taken from video. Photo by Reuters
The next 48 hours, perhaps less, are going to be crucial as the world watches for the response by Russian President Vladimir Putin after Turkey shot down a Russian fighter jet on the Syrian border.

Nato chief Jens Stoltenberg says the military alliance stands by its key ally Turkey and supports the territorial integrity of its ally. As Nato calls for calm, Mr Putin is weighing up his options. Early signs showed Mr Putin steely faced and calm but the world knows the Russian president can change in a heartbeat. Mr Putin has warned of serious consequences, which is a warning in itself. Russia has gone its own way in the bombing of Syria, hitting targets of rebels and supporters of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad alike.

An informal meeting between United States President Barack Obama and Mr Putin at the United Nations headquarters provided a glimmer of hope the two men may unite in their fight against Islamic terrorists responsible for the Paris killings and much of the world's global terrorism networks. But the shooting down of a Russian jet, and apparent killing of a pilot as he parachuted to expected safety, is a step into the unknown.

When Mr Putin labelled Turkey ''accomplices of terrorists'', he was hinting at a complex relationship which includes links between senior Islamic State figures and Turkish officialsTurkey's international airports have been busy. Many, if not most, of the estimated 15,000-20,000 foreign fighters to have joined the Islamic State (IS) have first flown into Istanbul or Adana, or arrived by ferry along its Mediterranean coast.

Reports from Britain indicate the jihadists leaving the United Kingdom for Syria pass through the porous borders of Turkey.

The influx has offered fertile ground to allies of Mr Assad who, well before a Turkish jet shot down a Russian fighter on Tuesday, had enabled, or even supported IS. Mr Putin's reference to Turkey as accomplices of terrorists is likely to resonate even among some of Ankara's backers.

Mr Stoltenberg says he has warned repeatedly of the dangers posed by Russia's massive air campaign against rebels seeking to oust its long-term ally Mr Assad. The shooting highlights the importance of having and respecting arrangements to avoid such incidents in the future.

Global economic growth will be affected by the latest incident. Already, world airlines are reporting a rapid rate of cancellations. Oil prices have surged higher over the possibility of disruption to energy output in the Middle East.

This all plays into the hands of IS, the very organisation the West is fighting so hard to restrain. As people in the West get more concerned, they take measures to protect themselves personally and financially. The US has issued a global travel warning - potentially driving away the tourists keen to come to New Zealand and Australia because of the weaker transtasman currencies.

It will soon become apparent IS does not have to even raise a weapon in anger to terrorise the world. The suggestion of more bombs on aircraft, hostage taking or beheadings will be enough to strike deep into the hearts of citizens.

New Zealand and Australia are right to call for calm following the downing of the Russian jet. United Nations Secretary-general Ban Ki-moon is appealing to Turkey and Russia to reduce tensions and hopes a credible and thorough review will clarify events and help prevent future reoccurrences. A review cannot happen quickly enough to avoid the escalation of tensions because at the same time, Turkey says it will not hesitate to exercise its rights emanating from international law to protect the security of its citizens and borders.

The world can only watch and wait - hoping for a calm resolution rather than an escalation of fighting.

 

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