Election fatigue in Australia

Malcolm Turnbull.
Malcolm Turnbull.
Australian voters could face an election as soon as July 2 if Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull makes good on his threat to call a double dissolution in response to a key Bill being voted down by the Federal Upper House.

The Australian Building Commission and Construction Commission Bill was defeated by 36 votes to 34. The Senate has voted down the Bill twice, giving the Government the trigger for calling an early election.

An election may benefit Mr Turnbull, who needs a clear mandate amid falling opinion polls. He used an obscure provision in the constitution to call back Parliament from its recess to debate the labour law-related Bill this week.

The Government has painted the labour Bill as essential to the economy, saying a high rate of industrial disputes and standover tactics are acting as a drag on an important sector. Opposition and crossbench senators say the Government has no intention of seeing the Bill pass as it seeks to gain a double dissolution trigger.

Conservative governments have a history of trying to break the hold trade unions have on workplaces. Unlike New Zealand, trade union membership is strong in Australia and the unions have strong input into the parliamentary process through the selection of Labor Party candidates.

Despite the Labor opposition saying Australians are more concerned about health and education, Mr Turnbull's Ggovernment will be determined to break the power of unions and curtail the amount of money those unions pour into Labor Party coffers - a mirror of what took place in New Zealand with ongoing changes to labour laws by first Jim Bolger's government and now the Government led by John Key.

Calling for a double dissolution also allows Mr Turnbull to clear the decks of so-called micro-party senators and gain control of the upper house.

The double dissolution mechanism is unique to Australia and is ostensibly designed to break a political deadlock. In practice, the measure has usually been deployed for short-term political gain, allowing the Government to hold an early election when conditions are favourable.

Although his ratings have slipped, Mr Turnbull is far more popular than his Labor counterpart, Bill Shorten, and polls have the Coalition Government well in front of Labor.

A double dissolution will also mean all Senate seats are contested at the election, rather than the usual half. The Senate passed new rules last week making it difficult for the micro-parties, which have been a thorn in Mr Turnbull's side, to secure upper house seats.

If the Coalition can get the balance of power in the Senate, it will do away with the micro-parties at the same time.

Mr Turnbull faces a tight timetable if he is indeed to call for the double dissolution. He is now expected to call an election after the Government delivers its Budget on May 3. Election rules require Mr Turnbull to hold the election before July 2 should he dissolve Parliament immediately.

But changes to voting rules disadvantaging the micro-party senators do not come into effect until July 1. Mr Turnbull must call the election before May 11 or he will no longer be able to use the dissolution trigger.

Australia faces the irony of having six prime ministers within six months after Labor played ‘‘replace the leader'' between Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard and Mr Turnbull overthrew Tony Abbott. For a Western democracy, a lot of changes and the Australian voters can be excused for election fatigue.

The election comes with some risks as double dissolutions have not always worked out for the government of the day. The Coalition lost government at the 1983 election after Labor unexpectedly made the popular unionist Bob Hawke its leader.

Mr Turnbull appears to be on safer ground.

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