Lots to lose in Brexit

Nervous times await Britain as the "Brexit'' votes are cast this week.

The polls indicate the British people could swing either way on the decision to leave or stay in the European Community. This momentous choice could cause a serious backwash for the rest of Europe as well as ripples around the rest of the world.

Just what will transpire after Brexit is impossible to predict. The experts, including almost all leading economists, warn against Brexit, forecasting its financial cost will be serious.

Often, though, the specialists are wrong because matters are so complex and the future so hard to predict. That leaves voters not knowing quite what to believe.

At a minimum, it is probably safe to say the extremes from both sides are overstating their case. The sky will not fall in should Brexit win. Britain is likely to muddle along alone after a messy divorce, albeit with major issues and as a poorer nation.

At the same time, the cries from the other side, of making Britain great again, are ludicrous. Britain, once a great power, is a middling force of only 60 million people that will be weaker still as it endeavours to become "an island entire of itself''.

Being part of Europe, for all the frustrations, costs and frustrations, gives Britain more clout.

Impetus for Brexit comes in part from the same apprehension that helped propel United States presidential candidate Donald Trump to the fore, and that gave power to the Right across Europe.

The rich have become richer while many are alienated, excluded and threatened in the modern, globalised world. As the neo-liberal elite sail ahead mastering the universe, or so it would seem, "ordinary'' folk see their wages stagnating, their jobs disappearing and housing becoming out of reach.

Eastern European languages are spreading on the streets and Muslim headscarves are becoming commonplace across the country. Many Britons feel their country is being overrun.

Traditional leadership is viewed with bitter suspicion, so much so that whenever British Prime Minister David Cameron spoke on Brexit, the "remain'' campaign lost ground.

Even when the consensus from policy-makers, economists and investors says Brexit is bad, this is disregarded as the voice of the self-interested elite.

Thus, there is an amalgam of older people, working-class communities, right-wingers and others all willing to vote with their hearts and against the cities, the educated, the liberals.

But they, like Britain as a whole, have a lot to lose and not much to gain from Brexit. Their nationalistic Jerusalem of "ancient times'' is a Utopian and foolish dream. Will weeks, months and then years of uncertainly create good jobs?

Will being extricated from the current links with the rest of Europe solve serious social issues? Will Britain, still part of a globalised world, really be independent? Will immigration be able to be curtailed, and what difference will that make?

The undermining of London as a primary world financial capital will erode prosperity, as will the loss of Britain's cosmopolitan and open reputation. Scotland will secede as soon as it can, new trade deals will have to be negotiated, and a weakened pound will raise the cost of living.

It is telling to examine who is leading the drive to "freedom'' from Brussels; the right-wing conservatives and the anti-immigration UK Independence Party. While they can hardly be blamed for the horrible murder of Labour MP Jo Cox by a crazed nationalist, the debate had become toxic.

Brexit voters had better be careful what they wish for. Even if the doomsayers of the "remain'' camp have overdone their arguments, as is likely, the risk of significant negative consequences are high.

It is all too easy for Brexit supporters to dismiss these concerns, while also, as one British newspaper put it, "peddling a dangerous illusion''.

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