New Zealand waits and watches as the implications of the United Kingdom's Brexit vote continue to unfold.
Choosing to leave the European Union is a bigger deal than many predicted. Like the rest of the world, this country is an affected and interested bystander, although New Zealand's longstanding ethnic, cultural and economic links make our concerns especially acute.
So much is uncertain, and the situation changes from day to day. When will Britain give formal notice of exit? Who will do that? Is there still any chance that might, in fact, not happen? What will be the shape of the leadership of the in-turmoil Labour Party or the Conservatives? Will the EU play hardball? How can Britain expect the benefits of standing alone alongside the advantages of union? How soon before a general election? Can Scotland break away? What would that mean for England and its direction? What is the future for Northern Ireland? Will, as Finance Minister George Osborne says, Britain have to raise taxes and cut spending?
Britain, as a nation, played Brexit even worse than England did in its capitulation to Iceland in the Euro 2016 football this week. Somehow, the phoney claims of the Brexit campaign were widely accepted. Somehow, the people of Britain - abetted by large parts of the popular media - let their frustrations and fears rule. The devil they did not know is proving to be worse than the devil they did.
New Zealand's Prime Minister, John Key, has been at what could be described as either his imperturbable best or dismissive worst, saying New Zealanders would see very little impact on the New Zealand economy despite Brexit rattling global markets. He added things would return to normal levels over time. Such comments might be those of a skilled prime minister who is a master at smoothing troubled waters - while also aggravating and exasperating his opponents. But the veracity of what he says can be dismissed with a ``he would say that, wouldn't he'' response.
New Zealand First leader Winston Peters, again unsurprisingly, plays to his gallery. He will continue to milk immigration fears, just as Brexit campaigners did, and he went as far as saying he was ``delighted the British people exhibited the same character they showed when confronted by Hitler''. Although he is correct when he identifies the anti-establishment, anti-foreigner, anti-immigration, anti-globalisation fears -and there is a basis to some of these - he, like Ukip leader Nigel Farage, offers no effective answers. In fact, the reference to Hitler is ironic given a portion of the Brexit support came from the Far Right.
Labour leader Andrew Little, meanwhile, is caught in the ambivalence that has hamstrung Labour in Britain, particularly leader Jeremy Corban. The two Labour parties have accepted the basis and benefits of a neo-liberal world and globalisation but are looking for fresh directions. This creates tension, as exhibited for example in the Trans Pacific Partnership debate, between accepting clipped sovereignty for the sake of international rules and co-operation and policy independence.
Despite Mr Key's soothing words, Brexit will have short, medium and long-term effects on New Zealanders and our economy. International effects of a weaker Britain, and also a weaker Europe, will be significant and ongoing, however they transpire. The market disorder has immediately reduced the value of investments, including in Kiwisaver, and a New Zealand free-trade deal with the EU could well be delayed as it slips down Europe's priorities.
The lower value of the pound will make travelling in Britain cheaper, but this country might also expect fewer visitors. An economically-strained England could spur more migration and also reduce job openings for young New Zealanders on their OE.
In the meantime, New Zealand can do little but wait and see what unfolds while, at the same time, endeavouring to make the best of opportunities in a changing world.
