Borrow and hope; tax and spend. For months, that has been
Bill English's pithy, double-phrased encapsulation of how
Labour would run the economy.
The finance minister's jibe now rings somewhat hollow.
National may still claim to be the party which is seen by
voters as the most reliable manager of the economy. But
holding on to that title through the election campaign is not
going to be quite the doddle National thought it would be.
For starters, Labour's luck has changed for the better. The
downgrades of New Zealand's credit rating plus the Treasury's
gloomy outlook in this week's pre-election fiscal update have
supplied Labour with the kind of lethal ammunition it has
lacked for so long.
However, Labour has also done a power of work on its economic
and monetary policies. The framework of that policy - a far
more hands-on style in promoting economic development - was
unveiled at the party's conference last year.
Since then, Labour has put substantial meat on those bones,
culminating in this week's triple-whammy savings policy which
would see compulsory contributions by all workers to a
KiwiSaver scheme, the immediate resumption of contributions
to the New Zealand Superannuation Fund and, most radical of
all, the gradual raising of the age of eligibility for
state-funded super from 65 to 67.
Coupled with the party's capital gains tax, research and
development tax credits, and a monetary policy designed to
take pressure off the dollar, Labour has not only bitten the
bullet, it has swallowed it whole in terms of policies which
would boost investment in productive enterprises and -
ultimately - deliver jobs.
Labour's problem is that components of the package are
distinctly unappealing politically.
The rise in the retirement age is Phil Goff's baby. He has
pushed that initiative through the Labour caucus, which had a
lengthy discussion about the savings policy the day before
its release.
There is no guarantee that Mr Goff's decision to waltz
through several political minefields in one election campaign
will not turn out to be one of the great political
miscalculations of all time.
Mr Goff literally now stands and falls on the success or
otherwise of such a huge gamble.
Come election night, however, neither he nor his colleagues
are going to die wondering whether they could have done more
to avert defeat.
What is not in question is that Labour has a plan for the
economy. National is starting to look like it doesn't.
National seems to be putting an awful lot of eggs in its
return-to-surplus by 2014-15 basket.
National has determined that balancing the financial books
and cutting debt is the is the best thing a government can
do.
Indeed, given the fiscal shocks of the last three years, such
caution might well justified.
National is not just talking fiscal responsibility, however.
It is talking austerity to back up its claim that in tough
times it is the party best trusted with controlling the
economic levers.
The political beauty of all this is that National will not be
called to account this side of election day. The target date
for a return to surplus is four years away, not four weeks
away.
Labour's answer to National aligning itself with a public
mood which prefers precaution to profligacy is to stress it
too would hit that target date.
National claims that is impossible given that controlling
spending is difficult enough without the additional burden of
promises of extra spending.
Labour argues that it can easily afford new spending once its
capital gains tax really kicks in.
A name, residential address, and (preferably residential) telephone number is required from readers who comment on ODT Online. These details will not be visible to site visitors.