Murray Grimwood argues that with peak oil past, our
civilisation could be in for a long, slow decline - and that
we should plan for a permanent recession.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy calls for a new Bretton
Woods, and rightly so, for without doubt one is needed.
In the same breath though, he calls for renewed growth, and
in doing so epitomises the endemic dissonance which may be
the downfall of our current civilisation.
If he had bothered to work out why the current system failed
(extended leverage is a symptom, not a cause) he would not be
making the second call.
Make no bones about it, every past civilisation has decayed
into the dry leaves of history - why should this one be
different?
All those past efforts outgrew their carrying capacity, be it
the Mayans with corn, the Sumerians with irrigation, or the
colonist economies with dwindling extractables.
Anthropologist Jared Diamond catalogues them in his
insightful book Collapse.
Those partial to more easily-digested literary offerings
should try The Lorax, by Dr Seuss.
The message is identical: the collapse is usually a decline
over decades or centuries, and that zero growth does not
signal zero activity, just its peak.
Meaning we have to plan for a long, permanent recession.
Our society has been able to do so much more that previous
ones, thanks only to the one-off use of fossil fuels.
The International Energy Agency has now signalled that we are
past the peak of global oil supply, citing a cumulative
depletion rate of 6.8% per annum.
For various reasons, I go with a figure between 4.5 and 5%,
but the difference will only control the speed of the change,
not the change itself.
Efficiencies cannot take up that kind of slack, nor can any
replacement demonstrate the ability to maintain the status
quo, let alone address an increase in demand.
For those who are sceptical of the correlation between energy
and economic activity, ponder this: Britain powered her
post-industrial revolution supremacy on a coal-driven
economy.
The transition to oil as (particularly) a transport fuel,
mirrored the passing of her baton to the USA.
The USA prospered while using her own oil, the supply of
which peaked in 1970.
Powering down
We've visited NZ several times and love your country, even wanting to move to NZ to get away from the US, endless war and government for and by corporations.
I sincerely hope that Murray Grimwood's advice for NZ becoming sustainable will be embraced. Obama probably has the charisma to get the US and maybe even the world on board, but unfortunately he's in denial like all politicians.
We live on the island of Kauai where we have a pretty vocal grassroots effort promoting individual and community organic gardens. Our next big push is for water security - at present all the wells are powered with diesel fueled electricity.
Sending you love from Kauai and we'll hold the vision that NZ will get on the sustainability track!
Aloha, Judie Lundborg Hoeppner
Murry Grimwood is right
According to most independent studies, global crude oil production will now decline from 74 million barrels per day to 60 million barrels per day by 2015. During the same time, demand will increase 9%.
No one can reverse this trend, nor can we conserve our way out of this catastrophe. Because the demand for oil is so high, it will always exceed production levels; thus oil depletion will continue steadily until all recoverable oil is extracted.
Alternatives will not even begin to fill the gap. And most alternatives yield electric power, but we need liquid fuels for tractors/combines, 18 wheel trucks, trains, ships, and mining equipment. The Energy Watch Group (funded by the German Parliament) concludes in a current report titled: “Peak Oil Could Trigger Meltdown of Society:”
"By 2020, and even more by 2030, global oil supply will be dramatically lower. This will create a supply gap which can hardly be closed by growing contributions from other fossil, nuclear or alternative energy sources in this time frame."
We are facing the collapse of the highways that depend on diesel trucks for maintenance of bridges, cleaning culverts to avoid road washouts, snow plowing, roadbed and surface repair. When the highways fail, so will the power grid, as highways carry the parts, transformers, steel for pylons, and high tension cables, all from far away. With the highways out, there will be no food coming in from "outside," and without the power grid virtually nothing works, including home heating, pumping of gasoline and diesel, airports, communications, and automated systems.
Wow . . .
Telling it like it is. Although I am an Aussie, I regularly read the ODT (and refer articles to friends). But this is the first time I have read something that made me want to register and comment.
Wow. A well thought out opinion piece. Thanks for taking the time.