Murray Grimwood argues that with peak oil past, our
civilisation could be in for a long, slow decline - and that
we should plan for a permanent recession.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy calls for a new Bretton
Woods, and rightly so, for without doubt one is needed.
In the same breath though, he calls for renewed growth, and
in doing so epitomises the endemic dissonance which may be
the downfall of our current civilisation.
If he had bothered to work out why the current system failed
(extended leverage is a symptom, not a cause) he would not be
making the second call.
Make no bones about it, every past civilisation has decayed
into the dry leaves of history - why should this one be
different?
All those past efforts outgrew their carrying capacity, be it
the Mayans with corn, the Sumerians with irrigation, or the
colonist economies with dwindling extractables.
Anthropologist Jared Diamond catalogues them in his
insightful book Collapse.
Those partial to more easily-digested literary offerings
should try The Lorax, by Dr Seuss.
The message is identical: the collapse is usually a decline
over decades or centuries, and that zero growth does not
signal zero activity, just its peak.
Meaning we have to plan for a long, permanent recession.
Our society has been able to do so much more that previous
ones, thanks only to the one-off use of fossil fuels.
The International Energy Agency has now signalled that we are
past the peak of global oil supply, citing a cumulative
depletion rate of 6.8% per annum.
For various reasons, I go with a figure between 4.5 and 5%,
but the difference will only control the speed of the change,
not the change itself.
Efficiencies cannot take up that kind of slack, nor can any
replacement demonstrate the ability to maintain the status
quo, let alone address an increase in demand.
For those who are sceptical of the correlation between energy
and economic activity, ponder this: Britain powered her
post-industrial revolution supremacy on a coal-driven
economy.
The transition to oil as (particularly) a transport fuel,
mirrored the passing of her baton to the USA.
The USA prospered while using her own oil, the supply of
which peaked in 1970.
A name, residential address, and (preferably residential) telephone number is required from readers who comment on ODT Online. These details will not be visible to site visitors.