It is an illusion to believe we can be a neutral bystander on the South China Sea issue, writes Nicholas Khoo.
A not-so-quiet storm is brewing on New Zealand's foreign policy horizon. Consider a recent development.
Ahead of Prime Minister John Key's recent visit to China, the Chinese Xinhua News Agency advised that "any attempt by Wellington to break its promise not to take sides on the [South China Sea] issue would risk complicating the flourishing trade ties between China and New Zealand''.
This sounds serious.
It is.
In effect, we have been told to focus on trade with China and mind our own business on the increasingly contentious territorial disputes in the South China Sea.
But can we afford to act as we have been so advised?
I am afraid not.
A little context will assist in understanding why this is the case.
Since 2010, maritime territorial disputes in the South China Sea have emerged as a particularly serious regional security issue.
The issue involves, on one side, our second-largest (and fastest-growing) trade partner, China.
On the other side stand our long-standing economic and security partners: the US, a number of the states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), Taiwan and, even more recently, Japan.
Both sides view themselves as seeking to secure their legitimate interests in a defensive manner, and facing off against a counterpart with aggressive intentions.
The latest instalment in this saga occurred in February 2016 when China, itself responding to a variety of US actions in the South China Sea since early November 2015, deployed surface to air missiles (Sam) in the Paracel Islands.
For good measure, General Fan Chanlong, vice-chairman of China's Central Military Commission, has recently inspected a number of Chinese-administered islands in the South China Sea.
At roughly the same time, US Secretary of Defence Ashton Carter visited the Philippines and announced that joint US-Filipino naval patrols in the South China Sea would commence immediately.
Why should New Zealanders care about all of this?
After all, our geographical location gives us considerable immunity from the sharper edges of the escalation in tensions.
The reason to care is that over the longer run, it is an illusion to believe we can be a neutral bystander on the South China Sea issue.
At a concrete policy level, the disputes strike at New Zealand's core national security interest, specifically, freedom of navigation in the Asia-Pacific.
In fact, given our dependence on global trade, we arguably have a greater interest than many other regional states in a satisfactory resolution of the disputes.
The way things are going, there is a just a chance, albeit a slim one, that this storm can be forestalled.
The Asean states have been seeking a permanent Code of Conduct to facilitate the resolution of the South China Sea disputes.
Chinese policymakers should seize on the opportunity provided by this code.
In its private consultations with Beijing, New Zealand should lend strong support for such a code.
Whatever the outcome of these conflict resolution efforts, the bottom line is that New Zealand's policymakers and the general public cannot uncritically accept that business will carry on as usual in the region.
The sooner we come to terms with this reality, the better.
- Nicholas Khoo is senior lecturer in the department of politics, University of Otago, where he is director of the MA degree in International Studies.
