It takes a lot to stop Phil Goff
in his tracks. Labour's leader was temporarily lost for
words, however, when his path crossed with that of a Taranaki
local while he and his caucus colleagues were bussing their
way from Wellington to New Plymouth this week.
Venturing an opinion on this latest stage in Labour's
campaign to "reconnect" with voters, the man told Mr Goff:
"Listen mate.
You know we voted these guys in seven months ago.
You don't expect us to come up and say we did the wrong thing
yet, do you?" There was only one thing wrong with that
statement.
It is actually nine months since the election.
Otherwise, it cuts straight to the bone in supplying the
reason why Labour is struggling for relevance.
The party simply doesn't have an audience beyond its core
support base - yet.
No-one in Labour is willing to punt money on when "yet" will
arrive.
Worryingly for the party, a poll out this week further
confirmed the huge gap between Labour and its major rival, in
this case a staggering 20 percentage points.
Arguably, the polls do not matter that much at this early
stage of the three-year electoral cycle.
But with no end in sight to the golden weather being enjoyed
by John Key and his Government, the pressure on Mr Goff to
perform mounts accordingly.
Labour would like to believe it is in the same position
National was in 2005 - a contender for power.
National's high poll ratings would suggest Labour is closer
to the position National was following the 1999 election -
staring down the barrel of at least two terms in Opposition.
As National discovered in 2000, an Opposition party can
expend an awful lot of energy with very little result through
constantly being eclipsed by a new government determined to
pack as much as possible into its first 12 months back in
office.
On becoming leader, Mr Goff was like a sprinter who has
turned up for a long-distance race.
He seemed to treat every day as if election day was just
around the corner.
He showed a frustration and impatience towards National still
displayed by some of the shriller Labour-aligned blogs, which
find fault with anything and everything the Key Government
does while expecting their breathless critiques to somehow
bring forward its demise.
It took a while for Mr Goff to work out that people were
simply not listening to what he and Labour had to say.
A tactical shift has seen him being less in people's faces
and more intent on quietly reminding them that Labour stands
beside them.
He is now starting to pace himself and choose more carefully
the issues on which he is planning to make the running.
Partly because the party is in Opposition, the atmosphere in
the Labour caucus is said to be more relaxed than under the
strict regime of Mr Goff's predecessor.
Mr Goff is said to run the caucus in a more collegial style
and is more open to the free flow of opinion.
Just as well perhaps.
Labour's Red Alert blog, which has given the party's MPs a
valuable mouthpiece, was up-and- running before Mr Goff was
told of its establishment.
The re-emergence of more open debate within the party about
ideas and policies was evident during the last couple of
party conferences of the Clark dynasty.
The generational shift driving that is now manifested in the
crop of new MPs, which is thought to be more talented than
the 1990 intake which included the likes of Steve Maharey,
Pete Hodgson and Lianne Dalziel.
The kind of revitalised thinking going on within the party
was exhibited this week by a post on Red Alert from Rimutaka
MP Chris Hipkins.
She noted the ongoing loss of traditional manufacturing and
other blue-collar jobs in the Hutt Valley, with the displaced
workers ending up in small businesses or becoming independent
contractors.
Those people were now more worried about filling in their GST
returns on time than they were in statutory meal breaks and
personal grievance procedures.
She asked how Labour should respond to such changes in
workforce demographics.
The answer is "differently" if it wishes to retain and build
on its core constituency.
Ms Hipkins' observations are only the tip of an iceberg.
Labour is going to have to respond to a lot of things in a
different fashion than it has done in the past.
Otherwise the party will be out of touch with mainstream
opinion.
National is already trying to marginalise Labour, for
example, by soft-selling much greater use of the private
sector to deliver state-funded health, social and other
services, plus infrastructure development to what it thinks
is a public now more receptive to the proposition.
National has learnt to be more subtle in its advocacy, saying
private sector involvement will only happen when it is
"practical" or "sensible" or "workable" and - as Bill English
was keen to stress this week - not for ideological reasons.
Labour's mindset is still back in the era when
"privatisation" just meant selling large state assets -
something National has anyway promised not to do in its first
term.
As finance minister, Mr English was also busy rewriting
economic history, saying it was now clear the economy started
to get out of kilter around the end of 2003.
The obvious implication was this was Labour's fault and its
ballooning public spending had only made things worse.
In chipping away at Labour's economic record, Mr English is
seeking to undermine Labour's credibility on economic policy
generally and public spending in particular.
The latter is especially relevant.
For the first time in a long time, a Labour caucus is going
to have to write policy against the backdrop of Budget
deficits for the foreseeable future.
So far, there is little indication of how Mr Goff is going to
deal with these dilemmas while keeping faith with Labour's
traditional constituency whose influence is bolstered by the
new intake of MPs more inclined to the left.
While some policy matters such as climate change and
emissions trading are said to be reasonably advanced,
development of policy is generally only at the stage where
spokespeople are producing broad discussion papers for wider
caucus consideration.
Calls for policy alternatives will be ignored for quite a
while yet.
Labour is instead responding to unpopular things National has
done - such as cutbacks to adult night classes and the
Auckland "Super City" proposal - by building coalitions of
the like-minded in order to put more pressure on National to
relent.
So far though there has been little indication of the
direction Mr Goff's leadership is taking Labour.
That should become much more obvious at Labour's annual
conference next month - the first full meeting of the party
since the election defeat.
The conference should see Mr Goff really stamp his authority
on the party. Whether he can reconnect with voters at the
same time is a far bigger ask.
The pamphlet dropped into letter-boxes nationwide promoting
Mr Goff listed two of the leader's attributes - a belief in
hard work and inspiration.
Of the first commodity, there is no shortage on Mr Goff's
part.
As for the second, we are still waiting.
- John Armstrong is The New Zealand Herald's political
correspondent
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