Will John Key still be loved come December? Can National's
dream run in the polls keep on keeping on through 2010 and
into election year, especially now the economic recession
seems to be (almost) over?
What has so far been a comparatively easy ride for Mr Key
from here on starts to get much more bumpy.
The time has come to do the difficult stuff.
The Key Government faces its Waterloo.
It will be damned if it is doesn't do something major by way
of reform this year - especially regarding tax policy.
It may be equally damned if it does.
An early sign of Mr Key's willingness to move out of his
comfort zone is his taking on the teachers head-on over
national standards for literacy and numeracy in primary
schools.
But the more accurate gauge of his acceptance that doing
something means upsetting someone will come next week when
Parliament resumes with the Prime Minister's formal statement
of his Government's priorities and policies for the months
ahead.
Neither Mr Key nor his Finance Minister Bill English is
giving much away ahead of Tuesday.
But as much as can be discerned, the day should be labelled
"Big Tuesday" given the apparent scale of the policy agenda
which Mr Key will sketch out, though still only in pretty
broad outline.
Next year being election year rules out National doing
anything then that might spell serious political trouble.
That means the difficult and the unpopular will have to be
done this year.
However, Mr Key has also promised action to spur what he
calls a "step-change" in the economy.
That is going to require something truly special and
innovative.
The days when National promised to tweak the Resource
Management Act as a fig leaf to cover the poverty of its
economic thinking are long gone.
The pressure to come up with policy with real cut-through has
been intensified by the end of the recession.
Last year's sticking-plaster solutions, such as Mr Key's Job
Summit, could be excused as the new Government responded to
potential economic meltdown.
National can no longer postpone tackling what it promised it
would fix - the underlying structural crisis in the New
Zealand economy.
All of the above is making Tuesday look more and more like a
defining moment for Mr Key's prime ministership as his
administration moves beyond implementing its manifesto
promises and into fresh territory policy-wise.
Some of the new stuff will be popular. Some of it won't.
The going was inevitably going to get tougher this year
anyway as tolerance and patience with a new government begins
to fade.
That could be seen by the reaction to this week's
unexpectedly high spike in jobless numbers to 1999 levels.
It is apparent in the tug-of-war over national standards.
There is a feeling within the Government that the teachers
are using their opposition to National's plan as a bargaining
chip in forthcoming pay talks.
Like others across the State Sector whose pay is for
negotiation this year, they are likely to be disappointed.
Mr English does not have the cash.
National standards, the State pay round, the foreshore and
seabed, the ongoing difficulties of cohabiting with the Maori
Party . . . the list of potential and actual political
headaches will only keep growing.
The political landscape suddenly looks a lot different than
it did only eight weeks ago when Parliament adjourned for the
Christmas-New Year break.
Labour's miserable 2009 culminated in vague murmurings about
Phil Goff's longevity as party leader.
He has returned from the summer break looking measured,
relaxed and very much in charge.
His early focus has been to define the economic and tax
debate in terms of what National does for those on lower
incomes in the post- recessionary environment compared to how
the well-off benefit.
It is an argument about fairness.
Mr Goff's game is to paint National as serving only the elite
and nudge the crucial middle-income vote to come down on the
side of equity.
This was fleshed out in Mr Goff's "the many, not the few"
state of the nation speech last month.
His announcement that under Labour, no public service chief
executive would be paid more than the base salary of the
prime minister provided the news hook for the speech.
Given existing salaries would not be touched, the policy
would be a slow burner in impact.
The important thing was the symbolism - that those at the top
of the pile should share the pain and that includes those in
the State Sector whom Labour is traditionally seen as
favouring.
Mr Key rubbished Mr Goff's idea.
It would have been smarter simply to have ignored it.
Mr Goff would have welcomed the Prime Minister drawing
attention to what he had said.
Mr Goff needs all the help he can get to reconnect Labour
with voters - the big challenge still confronting his party.
However, things should get markedly easier for Mr Goff this
year, just as they are going to get tougher for Mr Key.
The prime minister opted not to give a traditional state of
the nation discourse, preferring to wait until Parliament was
sitting.
Big Tuesday is thus crucial in ensuring National gets the
political year off to the right start.
Those who have accused Mr Key of sitting on his hands may
find themselves having to re-evaluate that assessment.
The programme outlined in his Prime Minister's statement -
required to be tabled under Parliament's standing orders at
the start of a new session - is unlikely to disappoint in
terms of bulk.
Immediate attention will zero in on what the document says in
response to the recommendations of the tax working group
which reported to Mr English last month.
Mr Key is expected to give some clarity as to what is on and
off the table in terms of potential tax changes and new
revenue-gathering devices.
It is vital for National that he does so.
At the moment, there is a big fat vacuum regarding the
Government's intentions.
It is being filled by others making speculative and largely
negative assessments of the impact of a land tax or a rise in
GST.
As the Government has discovered to its cost with national
standards, it needs to get out and start selling its
intentions, rather than simply assuming voters are getting
the message.
It is no good holding everything back for Mr English's second
Budget in May, in the interim leaving opponents running amok
and shooting down the various tax options before they have
even had the chance to fly.
Whatever Mr Key says in his statement about tax will raise
more questions than he and Mr English are probably willing to
answer at this stage. But it is essential Key gives some firm
steer.
Otherwise, Big Tuesday will be followed by flat Wednesday.
• John Armstrong is political correspondent for The
New Zealand Herald
