A survey revealing an urgent need to plan for a huge increase
in demand for residential care for the elderly confirms what
many in the sector feared, says Otago-Southland Aged Care
Association board member Malcolm Hendry.
The Aged Residential Care Service Review, released jointly
yesterday by the New Zealand Aged Care Association, the
Ministry of Health and 20 district health boards, highlights
the residential care demand spike expected from 2012.
By 2026, the over-65 population is set to increase 84%, from
512,000 to 944,000. During that period, New Zealand's
population is set to grow 20%, from 4.2 million to 5 million.
By 2026, an extra 12,000 to 20,000 elderly people would
require residential care. There are 34,000 aged-care beds
now.
Mr Hendry said the review confirmed anecdotal comments those
in the industry had made for years. Because of the cost of
building rest-homes, and lack of profitability, the sector
risked being underprepared for the aged-care spike.
Mr Hendry said if the sector did not expand to meet demand,
there was a risk the burden might fall on public hospitals,
he said.
Southern District Health Board funding and finance general
manager Robert Mackway-Jones said the review was especially
pertinent to Otago and Southland, as the region had a
slightly higher-than-average elderly population.
The DHB needed to work in partnership with the aged-care
system to plan the sector's future, he said.
- eileen.goodwin@odt.co.nz
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