Much will be made about the importance of starting strongly against Sri Lanka tomorrow, a team New Zealand haven't beaten in one-day internationals since 2009 (by coincidence at the last Champions Trophy). Six fixtures have been lost since.
Forget tomorrow if you're looking for a clutch match to watch. Regardless of the result against Sri Lanka, New Zealand will face either a battle for survival or a chance to play for top in the group when they meet Australia.
Making it more intriguing is New Zealand's record against Australia in ODIs at neutral venues: one win from 18 matches over more than 25 years. It was a significant one - a win at Cardiff in 1999 against a side that went on to win the World Cup. Geoff Allott took four wickets and Roger Twose made an unbeaten 80.
Many have warbled on about Australian vulnerability before, only to be embarrassed. One case was before the 2011 World Cup pool match in Nagpur. New Zealand lost by seven wickets after having their chances talked up. However, New Zealand, including many of the current ODI personnel, have beaten Australia four times in their last 11 matches.
To see Australia dismissed for 65 chasing India's 308 in a Cardiff warm-up game this week was preposterous. They struggled with the ball and crumbled with the bat.
Compounding matters is captain Michael Clarke's lower back problem. He might be out of the tournament with team physiotherapist Alex Kountouris saying he has headed to London for specialist treatment after missing both warm-up games.
The onus goes on the experience of Shane Watson, David Warner, Mitchell Johnson and the youthful exuberance of Mitchell Starc to deliver some traditional 'Strayne-type grit, but they're far from an intimidating sight compared to Adam Gilchrist, Ricky Ponting, Shane Warne and Glenn McGrath.
New Zealand coach Mike Hesson wisely opted for a one-game-at-a-time gambit when asked about the Australian threat yesterday (Fri). A better gauge will come from observing them play England tonight.
"We haven't looked at them yet and we won't until two days out," Hesson said. "Australia's had a tough start to their warm-up games but they are only warm-up games.
"I think you under-estimate them at your peril. We know they've got aggressive seam bowlers and an attacking top order that can destroy you if you are off your mark. We'll certainly be doing some due diligence."
- By Andrew Alderson of the Herald on Sunday in Cardiff
