Cricket: It's a numbers game for T20 leaders

Whatever happens in the first innings of Otago's must-win match against Auckland this evening, the management team will have to sit down during the break and crunch the numbers.

With just one round left in the domestic twenty/20 tournament four teams are still in the hunt for Sunday's final, and those teams play-off today.

If Central Districts beats Northern Districts in Hamilton, and Auckland beats Otago at Colin Maiden Park, there will be no need for calculators.

Central and Auckland will contest the final.

But if Northern Districts and Otago win, all four sides will finish the round-robin on 24 points and will have to be separated by net run rate.

The season's net run rate is calculated by the average number of runs scored per over minus the average number of runs conceded per over.

Otago has scored 1051 runs at an average of 7.6 per over, and conceded 1002 at 7.29, leaving it with a net run rate of 0.310.

Its opponent, Auckland, has a superior net run rate of 0.552, and Northern Districts has the best net run rate of any of the four sides at 0.605.

Central Districts trails the pack with a net run rate of 0.295.

Otago coach Mike Hesson said the Volts would know exactly how many runs they needed to win by at the end of the first innings.

"A rough gauge is about 20 runs but until we get to the second innings, and can do the maths, it's not that simple," he said.

There was no advantage in batting or bowling first.

"If you bat second, you know at what point you need win by, but if you bowl second, you know what score you've got to restrict them to.

"So it doesn't matter."

Otago has resisted making changes, despite losing its last two matches.

"To be fair, we know we haven't played that well in the last couple of games but we know going into the last round of a very tight competition that we've got a really good chance.

"The guys are excited by that, rather than looking backwards.

"We know if we sneak into the final we have a chance."

Auckland had a convincing six-wicket win over Canterbury on Sunday and has stuck with the same 12.

Martin Guptill is in good form after whacking an undefeated 97 from 60 deliveries, and Lou Vincent cracked a ton earlier in the competition.

England international Ravi Bopara remains a threat with both the ball and bat and the resurgent Daryl Tuffey has taken 13 wickets at an average of 17.15.

Otago will look to its game-breaker Brendon McCullum to continue his form.

The classy top order batsman scored an undefeated century the last time the sides met.

Craig Cumming has also been in good nick and left arm spinner Nick Beard has made an impact when in the starting XI.

Ian Butler has had a mixed season with the ball.

His six for 28 was a record haul, but he has also been expensive at times.

Otago will be keeping its fingers crossed for a fine day.

Its campaign has been marred by poor weather and another abandonment would give Auckland a free pass to the final.

The forecast is for a few showers, with sea breezes and a high of 25degC.


    Twenty/20 championship

Final round teams
Otago: Brendon McCullum, Hamish Rutherford, Neil Broom, Craig Cumming (c), Nathan McCullum, Ian Butler, Yasir Arafat, Neil Wagner, Derek de Boorder,Warren McSkimming, Nick Beard, Anthony Bullick, Darren Broom.

Auckland: Lou Vincent, Martin Guptill, Ravi Bopara, Scott Styris, Gareth Hopkins (c), Colin de Grandhomme, Anaru Kitchen, Reece Young, Daryl Tuffey, Roneel Hira, Michael Bates, Bhupinder Singh.

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