The Steel has never won an ANZ Championship match in Australia and will certainly start as the underdog against the Thunderbirds in Adelaide tomorrow afternoon.
In 16 games across the Tasman, the best the Steel has managed is a 52-50 loss to the Firebirds in Brisbane in 2009.
That year, the Steel travelled to Adelaide to play the Thunderbirds in the minor semifinal and was defeated 51-45. There have been close games against the Fever and the Vixens but, generally, the Steel has struggled. The average losing margin in Australia is more than 10 goals.
But if round four taught netball fans anything, it is that this game can be anything but predictable.
Who would have thought the Magic would be on top of the table after four rounds? Many critics suggested the losses of Irene van Dyk and Laura Langman would result in the franchise slipping down the rankings. Instead, the Magic is unbeaten in 2014 and showed the Steel what is possible with a 49-44 win over the Vixens in Melbourne.
The Mystics had been dreadful in the opening three rounds but had a sudden change of fortune with a surprising 71-68 extra-time win against the Thunderbirds in Auckland on Monday. Who would have picked that? The Thunderbirds had been unbeaten since round two last year.
Arguably, that was not even the biggest upset of the round. That title rests with the Tactix, who upset the Pulse 55-53 in Napier.
The Steel can perhaps take heart from the series of surprising results. It will also go into the game with some confidence.
There were certainly flaws in its dramatic 66-65 win against the Fever - notably it was not able to match the Fever's intensity in the second half - but it was an improvement on previous efforts. The Steel's ability to score quickly through Jhaniele Fowler-Reid means it remains a dangerous team. But with goal attack and captain Jodi Brown increasing her shooting load this season, the Steel looks a more complete side on offence. With Brown more productive, the Thunderbirds defensive unit will not be able to employ the tactic of hanging off Brown and double-teaming the 1.98m Fowler-Reid.
Goal keep Erena Mikaere made a huge impact in her first run-on game for the Steel. She used her 1.93m frame to make some telling deflections in an improved defensive effort.
Head to head, the Thunderbirds lead with five wins and two losses. They beat the Steel 60-54 in Dunedin last time the two sides met.
Coach Jane Woodlands-Thompson (92 games) will overtake former Magic coach Noeline Taurua for the most games coached in the tournament. She led the Thunderbirds to a title in 2010 and again last year. Under her leadership, the team boasts an impressive 69.6 winning percentage.
Midcourter Emily Beaton, who has been sidelined with a foot injury, is poised to play her first game of the season. Her return is timely as wing attack Leigh Waddington suffered a season-ending injury during the round four loss to the Mystics.
Thunderbirds shooter Carla Borrego became the eighth player to reach 2000 goals with her haul of 41 against the Mystics.
ANZ Championship: Steel v Thunderbirds
Where: Adelaide.
When: Tomorrow, 1.48pm.
Steel: Jhaniele Fowler-Reid, Jodi Brown (captain), Shannon Francois, Phillipa Finch, Wendy Frew, Rachel Rasmussen, Erena Mikaere, Phoenix Karaka, Te Paea Selby-Rickit, Storm Purvis, Gina Crampton, Stacey Peeters.
Thunderbirds: Emily Beaton, Erin Bell, Carla Borrego, Rebecca Bulley, Andrea Gilmore, Renae Hallinan, Cody Lange, Laura Packard, Samatha Poolman, Madeleine Proud, Kate Shimmin, Gia Abernethy.
