Rugby: Little chance of bolters in black

All Black team predictions. ODT graphic.
All Black team predictions. ODT graphic.
The All Black side to tour the northern hemisphere, and to stop in Hong Kong on the way to play the Australians, will be named tomorrow night. Rugby writer Steve Hepburn looks at a possible squad and who, if anyone, will receive a new cap.

It is the third grand slam tour in five years. It will be the seventh year in a row the All Blacks have headed north. And it will be the 12th time in just three years that the side has played the Australians.

But never mind the crowded history, this tour is all about the future.

Or more precisely, the World Cup in under 12 months' time.

To win the elusive trophy, the side needs to be at its peak.

And building to reach the top of the tree means this tour is about keeping up the momentum gained from this year, and getting the players to continue to deliver the goods.

The time for experimentation has probably gone. To take a punt on a player who may or may not be good enough for the ultimate level is not worth the risk with the World Cup just around the corner.

The coaches have had three years to find the players that they trust and know to gain the Webb Ellis Cup.

This tour it is about the side continuing to gel, and fine tuning.

Getting the team to play well for five weeks in a row, which it will have to do in a year's time.

It is also about finding clear back-ups to Dan Carter and Richie McCaw.

Who they are is still a bit cloudy, though some have fallen by the wayside.

Also, to drop an All Black from this year, when the side has won nine tests in a row, would be a tough move to justify.

The ITM Cup - great competition that it is - is a significant level below what is served up at test level.

So although it would be a great story, the plumber from Invercargill, hooker Jason Rutledge, is probably not going to put on a black jersey.

He was outstanding this year for the Highlanders - the next step up from domestic rugby - but he did not get a sniff back in May when the first All Black side was announced and is unlikely to again.

The only outside back who may be in danger of missing out is Joe Rokocoko. There are reports Sitiveni Sivivatu is close to playing but the Waikato man, who is never far from the physio table, surely needs to get himself totally fit and ready for next season.

Sonny Bill Williams will be picked. That is as certain as night follows day. The New Zealand Rugby Union is paying him big money and wants to see how that investment performs at the top level.

His bruising centre partner, Robbie Fruean, may also get a look in, at the expense of Benson Stanley, now that Luke McAlister is out of the running. Isaia Toeava may also come into the reckoning.

New Highlander Colin Slade should tour, and after investing in Aaron Cruden for a year the selectors may decide he will continue to be given a chance despite some glaring deficiencies in his game.

Up front, Adam Thomson, if he had not been injured, might have made the plane as Richie McCaw's back-up.

With the way the new rules are, openside flankers have to be more than just fetchers.

Tanerau Latimer has been playing well and done little wrong but the sixth loose forward is an open decision. Colin Bourke could be an outsider.

The tight five virtually pick themselves and it is hard to see anyone breaking into that establishment.

Keven Mealamu has overcome a niggling calf injury, but who the other hooker will be is a little unclear. Whether Andrew Hore is right to tour is anyone's guess. A decision on whether he plays for Taranaki against Wellington will be made today.

The days when Mike Brewer was not allowed to go to the 1991 World Cup because of an injury which would have healed well before the plane landed have obviously long gone.

If Hore is not deemed fit, Corey Flynn, though he may have picked up one injury too many, or Aled de Malmanche, may get the call-up.

 

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