Put simply, the clash at Loftus Versfeld on Sunday morning (NZT) will feature the worst lineout side in Super Rugby facing one of the very best.
The Chiefs are well aware of their own weakness and their opposition's strength in the area. It would be ignorant to ignore such a disparity in ability, with the statistics suggesting the defending champions' best hope is for victory in spite of the set piece.
Of that, they are certainly capable. The Chiefs claimed their second straight title last season with a 79 per cent success rate in the lineout - the lowest number in the competition - and little has changed in the offseason.
Through four games, the Chiefs are the worst in the Super 15 with a 70 per cent mark, while their match average of 8.3 lineouts won (14th) and 3.5 lineouts lost (15th) also rank in the bottom tier of teams.
And those numbers could be even more discouraging, considering the successes include quick throws, a manoeuvre the Chiefs clearly favour for obvious reasons.
The contrast with the Bulls is staggering. The Pretoria side, after five matches, have a 93 per cent success rate (2nd), courtesy of winning an average of 14.0 lineouts (1st) and losing 1.0 (2nd).
"It's been an area of concern right through the season," said assistant coach Wayne Smith. "Our lineout has been a work in progress.
"We have made some progress but we're going to be up against the best lineout in the competition, with probably the best lineout forward in the world running it, in Victor Matfield."
Smith and co are right to be concerned. While Matfield ranks third with 19 lineouts won and three lineout steals, locking partner Flip van der Merwe is second with 20 wins and two steals.
The Chiefs, meanwhile, have just 16 lineout wins among their quartet of locks - Brodie Retallick, Michael Fitzgerald, Matt Symons and Kane Thompson.
It would be unfair to blame the Chiefs' output entirely on the jumpers, however, with the lifters and, in particular, the hooker also playing a large part. It is in the No 2 jersey where the Chiefs suffer most, with Hika Elliott out indefinitely due to a neck injury.
In his place, Mahonri Schwalger (67 per cent) and Rhys Marshall (63 per cent) have the lowest throw success rates in the competition, compared to Bulls hooker Callie Visagie's second-ranked 92 per cent.
The inequality means the onus will be on the Chiefs to avoid infringing virtually anywhere in the field, according to Smith, with the Bulls more than capable of driving the lineout, winning further penalties and kicking for points or into touch closer to the line.
"It's a huge challenge for our forwards," Smith said. "We've looked for strategies to try to deal with that but it's all about execution in the field."
- By Kris Shannon of APNZ
