Rugby: More wins needed to make playoffs this year

Highlanders replacement forward Brendon Edmonds celebrates a try against the sharks at Forsyth...
Highlanders replacement forward Brendon Edmonds celebrates a try against the sharks at Forsyth Barr Stadium in Dunedin earlier this month. Steve Hepburn.
The Highlanders are one win off equalling the number of victories they tallied last year. So after making the playoffs last season, if they win another couple of games then surely they should be well ensconced into the post-season? Rugby writer Steve Hepburn has a look and finds it is not that simple.

If this was a horse race, the Highlanders would be well-placed. Parked well, as those in the sport of kings say.

Fifth on the table, with three of the teams above them having played one more game, the side is in control of its destiny.

But getting to eight wins, as it did last year, will not assure it of anything.

Last year, those eight wins and 10 bonus points was enough to get the Highlanders just, and only just, over the line and into the playoffs, with 42 points.

But last year was an anomaly.

Every other year since the competition went to a six-team playoff structure, teams have had to have significantly more wins in the bank to make the playoffs.

Last year's competition was very even.

There was a whole swag of teams around the seven-eight-nine wins mark.

Half the teams were in this category.

The 12th-placed team, the Lions had seven wins.

The Highlanders had one more win, to finish sixth.

Previous years have been way different.

The sixth-placed team in 2013, the Cheetahs, ended with 10 wins and six bonus points.

In 2012, the Sharks finished sixth with 10 wins and 11 bonus points.

That year the Highlanders scored nine wins - more than 2014 - but finished well out of the playoffs.

That is because, unlike last year, top teams won more games while the bottom sides lost more often.

In 2011, the first year of the revamped competition, the Sharks finished with 10 wins to make the playoffs from sixth.

More wins were needed to make the playoffs in the first three years of Super rugby with 15 teams because it was not as even.

Last year there were a lot more teams in the playoff picture.

The wins were spread around.

That is unlikely to be repeated.

Past the halfway mark in the competition and the three bottom sides this season - Blues, Reds and Force - have only five wins among them.

The top sides are going to pick up more wins.

Therefore, more wins are going to be needed to make the post-season.

The Highlanders are probably going to have to get 10 wins at least and a few more bonus points to get into the playoffs.

The structure of the competition is that the top side in each country gets into the playoffs no matter the tally of points.

So the Highlanders could get more points than any Australian or South African outfit but still be out of the top three.

Hardly seems fair but when was life fair?

The Hurricanes are 10 points ahead of the Highlanders but are not quite out of reach.

They have to play the Chiefs twice and also the Highlanders in Napier.

But they look hard to bowl.

Things are going for them.

They are getting the calls, the bounce of the balls.

Even Ben Franks looks younger than his usual 55.

The Highlanders could get a playoff game at home if they finish in the top four.

To do that, they probably need to get to 11 wins and pick up some try-scoring bonus points.

Four wins from six games.

Tough but not impossible.

Add a Comment

OUTSTREAM